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Journal of money credit and banking

Impact factor: 1.104 5-Year impact factor: 1.7 Print ISSN: 0022-2879 Online ISSN: 1538-4616 Publisher: Wiley Blackwell (Blackwell Publishing)

Subjects: Business, Finance, Economics

Most recent papers:

  • Reading between the Lines—Uncovering Asymmetry in the Central Bank Loss Function.
    Markus Haavio, Joni Heikkinen, Pirkka Jalasjoki, Juha Kilponen, Maritta Paloviita, Ilona Vänni.
    Journal of money credit and banking. 3 days ago
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nApplying a wide range of text analysis techniques, we proxy the central bank's loss by extracting the tone of the central bank's qualitative communication and combine it with real‐time quantitative information to estimate the loss function. We find strong and robust evidence of asymmetry in the case of the European Central Bank during 1999–2021: the slope of the loss function was roughly three times steeper when inflation exceeded the target compared to when it was below the target. This represents a significant departure from the quadratic and symmetric monetary policy loss function typically applied in macromodels."]
    May 07, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70053   open full text
  • Banking with Inside Money: An Efficiency Analysis.
    David Rivero, Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal.
    Journal of money credit and banking. 9 days ago
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe show that banks do not decentralize the first best in a nominal Diamond–Dybvig economy with inside money. Furthermore, state‐contingent deposit contracts do not expand the consumption possibility set to include the first best either. Central banks can improve welfare but only for savers and only with unconventional monetary policy. Finally, central banks could prevent runs using their lender‐of‐last‐resort facility. These results suggest that, without an explicit incorporation of inside money, it is not trivial to provide a theoretical argument about the ability of the banking sector to efficiently supply liquidity in our economies."]
    May 01, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70054   open full text
  • Redemption Fees and Gates in the Lab.
    Hubert János Kiss, Alfonso Rosa García, Lukas Voellmy.
    Journal of money credit and banking. 10 days ago
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe use laboratory experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of redemption fees and gates in reducing runs on funds. Our setup takes into account that investors may withdraw preemptively if they anticipate the imposition of fees or gates. We find that gates fail to reduce the propensity to run, whereas fees do have a mitigating effect on run behavior. However, the effect of fees is relatively small and takes time to materialize. Overall, our experimental results indicate that liquidity management tools are unlikely to eliminate fund fragility, consistent with the experience of the 2020 money market fund turmoil."]
    April 30, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70034   open full text
  • Capital Income Taxation and Self‐Fulfilling Aggregate Instability.
    Kevin X.D. Huang, Qinglai Meng, Jianpo Xue.
    Journal of money credit and banking. 10 days ago
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nA general wisdom, since at least the work of Schmitt‐Grohé and Uribe (1997), holds that a government that relies on adjusting capital (rather than labor) income tax rate to balance its budget is immune to aggregate instability driven by self‐fulfilling expectations. This conventional wisdom is overturned in the present paper that augments the neoclassical framework with endogenous capital utilization. We show that the interaction between the capital tax rate and the capital utilization rate generates fiscal increasing returns and factor share redistribution to induce equilibrium indeterminacy. It is also shown that capital depreciation allowances can act as a stabilization device to preempt extrinsic instability. We demonstrate that self‐fulfilling instability can occur in real‐world economies, but that it can be prevented if capital depreciation allowance is combined with capital taxation to achieve budget objective."]
    April 30, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70052   open full text
  • The Role of Remittances and FDI for the Current Account: The Case of Cambodia.
    Veasna Kheng, Lei Pan, Xiaodong Fan.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 16, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper develops a small open economy real‐business‐cycle model to examine the dynamics of Cambodian current account. Differing from previous studies, our model incorporates both net foreign direct investment (FDI) and remittances as additional sources of macro‐economic fluctuations. Our results reveal that these two factors, especially FDI, account for more than 50% of the variations in the current account. In addtion, the model mimics well the actual trajectory of the Cambodia's current account, suggesting that the nature of the discount factor—whether endogenous or exogenous— does not play a crucial role in explaining the external balances."]
    April 16, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70049   open full text
  • Unequal and Unstable: Income Inequality and Bank Risk.
    Yuliyan Mitkov, Ulrich Schüwer.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 14, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe present a model in which income inequality interacts with banks' risk‐taking incentives, generating financial instability. Competition and deposit insurance cause some banks to lend to lower‐income borrowers at underpriced rates, creating “risky banks” that fail in downturns, while others lend to higher‐income borrowers and avoid default. Rising inequality affects stability by expanding the underpriced loan segment and increasing the share of risky banks. Moreover, borrower risk does not automatically imply bank risk: without risk‐shifting, no bank fails, even as borrowers become riskier. The model identifies when inequality heightens bank risk and clarifies the mechanisms connecting inequality, lending behavior, and financial fragility."]
    April 14, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70045   open full text
  • Inflation Expectation Uncertainty in a New Keynesian Framework.
    Angela Fuest, Torsten Schmidt.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 08, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 58, Issue 3, Page 739-762, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nThis study analyzes inflation expectation uncertainty and the effect on economic activity. Within a New Keynesian framework, we estimate the effect of an inflation expectation uncertainty shock on the macroeconomy. Inflation expectation uncertainty negatively affects the inflation rate and the output gap, without having a distinct effect on the level of inflation expectations. Second, we provide a theoretical foundation for the effect of inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian‐type model, in which uncertainty affects economic activity via the supply side and the demand side of the economy. The results suggest that the demand channel outweighs the supply channel."]
    April 08, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13218   open full text
  • A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation.
    Hie Joo Ahn, Han Chen, Michael Kister.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 08, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 58, Issue 3, Page 763-786, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nWe develop a new indicator of common wage inflation (CWI) by extracting and aggregating the common components from detailed industry‐level nominal wage data. We show that the CWI is better aligned with the unemployment rate gap for the post‐Great Recession period than are other indicators of wage inflation. The CWI indicates a tighter economy than popularly cited wage measures during the expansion after the Great Recession, and the industry‐specific factors largely account for the subdued wage growth despite the continued tightening in the labor market."]
    April 08, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13217   open full text
  • How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices?: Evidence from U.S. Cities.
    Chi‐Young Choi, Soojin Jo.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 08, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 58, Issue 3, Page 853-884, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nWe examine the link between house and consumer prices in 41 U.S. cities using retail price data for various consumer goods. We find that shifts in house prices precede consumer price changes, with varying impacts depending on location and product categories. The nature of housing market shocks matters too; housing supply shocks move consumer prices temporarily through the cost‐push dynamics, while housing demand shocks have enduring effects via wealth and collateral channels. Our findings imply that housing market fluctuations may have greater impacts on local cost of living and consumer welfare than their representation in the Consumer Price Index."]
    April 08, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13214   open full text
  • Best Before? Expiring Central Bank Digital Currency and Loss Recovery.
    Charles M. Kahn, Maarten R.C. Van Oordt, Yu Zhu.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 08, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 58, Issue 3, Page 787-819, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nPhysical cash enables payments in the absence of electricity or network coverage. Such offline payment functionality promotes the operational resilience and, particularly in developing countries, the accessibility of payments. Central banks are exploring issuing digital cash substitutes with similar offline payment functionality. Such substitutes could incorporate novel features, making them more desirable than physical cash. This paper considers automating personal loss recovery for offline digital currency balances through the introduction of an expiry date. Our results show this functionality could have a substantial positive impact on consumer demand for offline digital currency balances. We find an asymmetric impact on welfare of adjustments to the expiry date: small increases from the optimum cause little damage, but small decreases from the optimal expiry date can have a large negative impact. More information‐sharing between user devices and the central bank can improve loss recovery but has an ambiguous impact on social welfare."]
    April 08, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13208   open full text
  • Banking Panic Risk and Macroeconomic Uncertainty.
    Johannes Poeschl, Jakob G. Mikkelsen.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 08, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 58, Issue 3, Page 885-918, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nWe explore the interactions between banking panics and uncertainty shocks. To do so, we build a model of a production economy with a banking sector. In the model, financial constraints of banks can lead to disastrous banking panics. We find that a higher probability of a banking panic increases macroeconomic uncertainty. Vice versa, a shock to macroeconomic uncertainty increases the likelihood of a banking panic. This banking panic channel amplifies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. A countercyclical capital buffer increases welfare by reducing the likelihood of a banking panic."]
    April 08, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13193   open full text
  • Has the Euro Paid Off? A Study of the Trade‐Induced Welfare Effects of the EMU.
    Silviano Esteve‐Pérez, Salvador Gil‐Pareja, Rafael Llorca‐Vivero, Jordi Paniagua.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 08, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 58, Issue 3, Page 705-737, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper aims to provide policy‐relevant insights into the effect of the euro on trade. It uses a new data set of bilateral international and intranational manufacturing trade flows for 69 countries over the period 1986−2016. A general equilibrium gravity model is estimated to quantify the welfare effect of the euro and its impact on consumer prices and producer prices within countries (i.e., distributional effects). The results of three counterfactual experiments indicate that the euro has successfully increased welfare for the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and non‐EMU member countries. The results suggest that a two‐speed euro design would have further increased welfare, with some heterogeneity within countries. The growth effects of the euro are mainly driven by trade creation outside the EMU. This finding raises questions over the cohesiveness of the euro area as an optimum currency area.\n"]
    April 08, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13220   open full text
  • Proximity to War: The Stock Market Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
    Jonathan Federle, André Meier, Gernot J. Müller, Victor Sehn.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 08, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 58, Issue 3, Page 681-703, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nWe identify a “proximity penalty” in the stock market response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: the closer countries are to Ukraine, the lower their equity returns in a four‐week window around the start of the war. This result holds even at the firm level within Ukraine's neighbors. Trade linkages explain two‐thirds of the proximity penalty. We attribute the remainder—1.1 percentage points in equity returns per 1,000 km of extra distance—to military disaster risk. Evidence from other financial data, geopolitical risk indicators, and aid flow statistics supports the relevance of military tail risk as a spillover channel."]
    April 08, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13226   open full text
  • Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on Income and Wealth Inequality.
    Sangyup Choi, Jeeyeon Phi.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 08, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 58, Issue 3, Page 821-852, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nWe analyze the distributional consequences of uncertainty shocks in the U.S. economy. While their impact on income inequality appears marginal when measured by a single statistic, there are important variations: inequality between the rich and middle‐income groups decreases, while inequality between the middle and poor‐income groups increases significantly. Additionally, uncertainty shocks increase labor income inequality through higher unemployment rates but simultaneously decrease nonlabor income inequality by reducing business and interest income. Uncertainty shocks reduce disposable income inequality, demonstrating the role of redistribution policy. Finally, they tend to reduce wealth inequality, mainly due to their adverse impact on financial asset prices, predominantly owned by wealthy households.\n"]
    April 08, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13228   open full text
  • On Adjusting the One‐Sided Hodrick–Prescott Filter.
    Elias Wolf, Frieder Mokinski, Yves Schüler.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 08, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 58, Issue 3, Page 919-931, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nWe show that one should not use the one‐sided Hodrick–Prescott (HP‐1s) filter as the real‐time version of the two‐sided HP (HP‐2s) filter: First, in terms of the extracted cyclical component, HP‐1s fails to remove low‐frequency fluctuations to the same extent as HP‐2s. Second, HP‐1s dampens fluctuations at all frequencies—even those it is meant to extract. As a remedy, we propose two small adjustments to HP‐1s, aligning its properties closely with those of HP‐2s: (i) a lower value for the smoothing parameter and (ii) a multiplicative rescaling of the extracted cyclical component. For example, for HP‐2s with λ=1,600$\\lambda = 1,600$ (value of smoothing parameter), the adjusted one‐sided HP filter uses λ∗=650$\\lambda ^* = 650$ and rescales the extracted cyclical component by a factor of 1.1513. Using simulated and empirical data, we illustrate the relevance of these adjustments. For instance, financial cycles may appear to be 72% more volatile than business cycles, where, in fact, volatilities differ only marginally."]
    April 08, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13240   open full text
  • Pollution Permits and Financing Costs.
    Fabio Antoniou, Manthos D. Delis, Steven Ongena, Chris Tsoumas.
    Journal of money credit and banking. April 08, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 58, Issue 3, Page 637-679, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nEffective environmental policy should consider how the financiers of polluting firms behave. We study phase III of the EU Emission Trading System. Loan spreads for cap‐and‐trade participants are a function of compliance costs, permit market features, and firms’ strategic actions. In contrast with the program intentions, we find that loan spreads fall by approximately 25%. We show that this decrease is almost entirely driven by low permit prices, the firms’ proactiveness to store permits, and imperfect foresight of market conditions in phase III. The drop in spreads cannot be explained by the decline in energy prices and/or other confounding factors.\n"]
    April 08, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13241   open full text
  • How Bad Are Weather Disasters for Banks?
    Kristian S. Blickle, Sarah N. Hamerling, Donald P. Morgan.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 27, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nNot very. We find even the most destructive weather disasters over the last quarter century had only modest effects on U.S. banks' performance. This stability seems endogenous rather than a mere reflection of federal disaster aid, as disasters tend to increase loan demand, which helps offset losses and boosts profits. Local banks avoid mortgage lending where floods are more common than official flood maps would predict, suggesting local knowledge may also mitigate disaster impacts. Our findings inform ongoing assessments of the physical risks to banks from climate change."]
    March 27, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70036   open full text
  • Cyberattacks on Small Banks and the Impact on Local Banking Markets.
    Fabian Gogolin, Ivan Lim, Francesco Vallascas.
    Journal of money credit and banking. February 26, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nCyberattacks on small banks have direct and spillover effects in local markets. Following successful cyberattacks, hacked small banks experience a decline in deposit growth rates. This effect of cyberattacks is not observed in hacked large banks. Cyberattacks on small banks also increase the local market share of large banks through positive deposit spillovers. The consequent change in market structure reduces credit access for small borrowers and impedes small establishment growth. Our findings show that, unlike large banks, small banks are not seen by depositors as having the resources to maintain adequate cybersecurity systems to protect customers from evolving cyber threats.\n"]
    February 26, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70043   open full text
  • A Housing Portfolio Channel of QE Transmission.
    Dominik Boddin, Daniel Marcel Te Kaat, Chang Ma, Alessandro Rebucci.
    Journal of money credit and banking. February 24, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe document a housing portfolio channel of monetary policy transmission using German household data in a difference‐in‐differences setting around the ECB's implementation of quantitative easing (QE) in 2015. We find that QE encourages households with larger initial bond positions to rebalance more toward second homes. Rebalancing is especially pronounced among higher income and church‐affiliated households with stronger tax incentives to purchase and rent out properties. We also show that, in regions more exposed to this channel, house prices increase more than rents, and sale listings decrease more than rental ones, suggesting that the rental supply may increase in response to QE."]
    February 24, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70038   open full text
  • Stock Market News and Output Growth.
    Stig V. Møller, Richard Priestley.
    Journal of money credit and banking. February 24, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe decompose stock market returns into cash flow news and discount rate news and show that an increase in discount rate news, which reflects an increase in the quantity of risk or level of risk aversion in the economy, predicts a decrease in future aggregate output. Discount rate news, in the form of news about the risk premium, dominates interest rate news and cash flow news and holds incremental predictive power relative to well‐established predictors of output. The predictive power is especially strong in the lower tail of output fluctuations. International evidence confirms U.S. results and also shows that global risk premium news predicts cross‐country output stronger than country‐specific risk premium news."]
    February 24, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70044   open full text
  • Joined at the Hip: Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity‐Dependent World.
    Guillermo A. Calvo, Andrés Velasco.
    Journal of money credit and banking. February 24, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe study the effects of monetary and fiscal policies when both money and government bonds provide liquidity services. Because money is the unit of account, the price of money is the inverse of the price level. If prices are sticky, so is the price of money in terms of goods, and this is one important reason why money is liquid and attractive. By contrast, the price of government bonds is free to jump and often does, especially in response to news about changes in fiscal policy and the supply of bonds. Those movements in government bond prices affect available liquidity, and therefore aggregate demand, inflation, and output. Under these conditions, bond‐financed fiscal expansions can be contractionary, causing deflation and a temporary recession. To avoid those effects, changes in bond supply must be matched by changes in money supply and in the interest rate on money. We conclude that in a liquidity‐dependent world, fiscal and monetary policies are joined at the hip.\n"]
    February 24, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70032   open full text
  • Understanding the Drivers of Housing Prices: Fundamental versus Expectational View.
    Clemente Pinilla‐Torremocha.
    Journal of money credit and banking. February 17, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper empirically confronts two different channels driving the 2000s boom‐bust and the recent strong appreciation of house prices in Europe. The first channel, the fundamental view, is characterized by income and credit. While the expectational view is based on the expectations of households and construction firms. I propose a Panel Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model that can determine these views' importance. First, the results show that expectations play a significant role in short‐ and medium‐run fluctuations of house prices, explaining 30% and 20%, respectively. Second, the effect of a household's belief shock on house prices depends on the level of mortgage credit liberalization. Specifically, in countries with looser credit conditions, household beliefs significantly impact house prices. While in countries with tighter credit conditions, the impact is not significant. Overall, this research provides new evidence that credit market conditions can influence the effect of expectations on house prices."]
    February 17, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70040   open full text
  • Policy Biases in a Model with Labor‐Market Frictions.
    Richard Dennis, Tatiana Kirsanova.
    Journal of money credit and banking. February 17, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe develop a model with labor‐market matching frictions that is subject to a range of shocks, including shocks to matching efficiency and bargaining power, and use the model to examine how monetary policy should respond to such shocks. We show that optimal monetary policy responds effectively to these shocks, producing economic outcomes that are close to the flex‐price equilibrium. Moreover, this effectiveness remains if monetary policy is conducted with discretion, indicating that time inconsistency and forward guidance are not central to the policy response."]
    February 17, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70046   open full text
  • Payment Flows, Bank Lending, and Central Bank Digital Currencies.
    Yuteng Cheng, Ryuichiro Izumi.
    Journal of money credit and banking. February 16, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper examines the optimal observability of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) payment flows in the context of bank lending. Observability matters because lenders use borrowers' payment flows to enforce repayment, and the degree of visibility varies across payment instruments. When a CBDC is introduced alongside existing payment methods, we show that moderate observability in CBDC transactions may generate a pooling equilibrium that involves inefficient credit allocation. The optimal level of observability depends on how much CBDC increases entrepreneurs' revenues: When the benefit is modest, the socially optimal design is deposit‐like; when the benefit is large, it is cash‐like."]
    February 16, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70035   open full text
  • FX Interventions and Capital‐Constrained Banks: Evidence from USD/ILS Spot, Forward, and Option Markets.
    Markus Hertrich, Daniel Nathan.
    Journal of money credit and banking. February 06, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nUsing confidential daily data, we examine the Bank of Israel's foreign exchange interventions from 2013 to 2019. We find that a 1 billion U.S. dollars (USD) purchase leads to a 0.82% depreciation of the Israeli Shekel (ILS)–a strong effect compared to other studies. We show that this effectiveness can partially be attributed to the limited risk‐taking capacity of global banks. The interventions also widen the negative deviation from covered interest parity and influence the higher‐order moments of risk‐neutral expectations derived from options prices. We find that USD purchases shift the USD/ILS distribution upward and reduce crash risk. Moreover, the options market anticipates and prices in upcoming interventions."]
    February 06, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70037   open full text
  • Marginal Propensity to Consume and Personal Characteristics: Evidence from Bank Transaction Data and Survey.
    Kozo Ueda.
    Journal of money credit and banking. February 01, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThe marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is heterogeneous and depends on liquidity, while liquidity is affected by both temporary circumstances and persistent characteristics. Using bank account transaction data and a survey of its account holders, this study aims to distinguish the sources of MPC heterogeneity. The results indicate that individuals with higher levels of risk aversion and time discount rates tend to exhibit a higher MPC, whereas lower wealth is also linked to a higher MPC. These findings suggest that MPC heterogeneity is influenced by both temporary and persistent factors."]
    February 01, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70041   open full text
  • From Interaction to Business Fluctuations: How Credit Network Explains Cycles.
    Emanuele Ciola, Gabriele Tedeschi.
    Journal of money credit and banking. January 28, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe investigate the dynamic properties of capital flows in the U.S. economy by developing and estimating a heterogeneous agents macro‐economic model in which credit, deposits, and interbank relations evolve endogenously through optimal decentralized choices under limited information. Our findings suggest that severe financial crises stem from the endogenous formation of a highly centralized financial sector. In this setting, a self‐reinforcing bank run against systemic intermediaries, although rare, can freeze the interbank market, disrupt a large share of credit lines, and trigger a deep recession. These results underscore the need for prompt policy intervention to prevent cascading effects and costly bailouts."]
    January 28, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70024   open full text
  • Regulating Credit Lines in the Presence of Fire‐Sale Externalities.
    José E. Gutiérrez.
    Journal of money credit and banking. January 28, 2026
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper presents a contract‐theoretic model in which banks choose prearranged long‐term and spot funding to finance firms' liquidity needs via credit lines. In high liquidity need states, long‐term funding reduces reneging on credit lines, sustains lending, and decreases liquidated firms. Under externalities generated by firm liquidations, banks choose insufficient long‐term funding compared to a social planner. A long‐term funding requirement, such as the Basel III net stable funding ratio, can restore constrained efficiency. The optimal requirement depends on the frequency of high liquidity need states, the value lost upon liquidation, and the excess cost of long‐term funding."]
    January 28, 2026   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70031   open full text
  • Ben Bernanke and Bagehot's Rules: Further Explorations.
    Emmanuel Carré, Laurent Le Maux.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 26, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nIn an article published in this journal, Hogan, Le, and Salter (2015) challenge Bernanke's claim, according to which the Federal Reserve's policy was consistent with Bagehot's rules of lending of last resort during the 2007–09 financial crisis. The purpose of our paper is twofold. First, we comment on the article by Hogan, Le, and Salter entitled “Ben Bernanke and Bagehot's rules,” which mainly focuses on the Federal Reserve's policy but does not fully investigate Bernanke's theory of lending of last resort. Second, we provide a more detailed exploration of Bernanke's approach to Bagehot's rules, and especially the rule of a high rate. We examine how Bernanke attempts to adapt Bagehot's rules to the modern monetary and financial system and how he addresses the theoretical arguments centered on moral hazard. We conclude that the rule of lending of last resort, as suggested by Bernanke, is plainly not in accordance with his previous analysis about financial stability policy.\n"]
    December 26, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70030   open full text
  • Monetary–Fiscal Policy Interactions When Price Stability Occasionally Takes a Back Seat.
    Sebastian Schmidt.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 24, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWhat are the macro‐economic consequences of a government that is limited in its willingness or ability to raise primary surpluses, and a central bank that accommodates its interest‐rate policy to the fiscal conditions? I address this question in a dynamic stochastic sticky‐price model with endogenous shifts between an “orthodox” and a “fiscally‐dominant” policy regime. The risk of future regime shifts has encompassing effects on equilibrium. Inflation is systematically higher than it would be if fiscal policy always adjusted its primary surplus sufficiently and monetary policy was solely concerned with price stability. This inflation bias is increasing in the real value of government debt. Regime‐switching probabilities are not invariant to policy. The central bank can attenuate the risk of a shift to the fiscally‐dominant regime by raising the real interest rate sufficiently moderately when inflation increases. Lower fiscal dominance risk, in turn, mitigates the inflation bias."]
    December 24, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70029   open full text
  • How Banks Create Gridlock in Payment Systems to Save Liquidity: The Case of Canada.
    Rodney J. Garratt, Zhentong Lu, Phoebe Tian.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 16, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nUsing detailed data from the introduction of a new high‐value payment system (HVPS) in Canada, we show how participants learn to use the new gridlock resolution arrangement to create gridlock and save liquidity. These observed behaviors are consistent with the equilibrium of a “gridlock game” that captures the key incentives participants face in the system. The findings have important implications for the design of HVPSs and shed light on financial institutions' liquidity preference."]
    December 16, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70013   open full text
  • Survey Expectations in the U.S. Phillips Curve.
    Carlos Bejar‐Garcia.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 15, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper empirically examines the use of different survey expectations in the U.S. Phillips curve. I find that between the Michigan Surveys of Consumers’ (MSC) and Survey of Professional Forecasters’ (SPF) short‐ and long‐term forecasts, short‐term forecasts from the MSC are the best measure of inflation expectations for use in the Phillips curve. These results are robust to specifications of the Phillips curve with different measures of inflation, labor market slack, and sample periods. Furthermore, I find that conditional forecasts of inflation using short‐term MSC expectations lead to the greatest improvement in out‐of‐sample Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) relative to other expectations.\n"]
    December 15, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70027   open full text
  • Redistributive Policy Shocks and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents.
    Ojasvita Bahl, Chetan Ghate, Debdulal Mallick.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 12, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nGovernments in EMDEs routinely intervene in agricultural markets to stabilize food prices in response to adverse shocks. Such interventions involve a large increase in the procurement and redistribution of agricultural output, which we refer to as a redistributive policy shock. What is the impact of a redistributive policy shock on inflation and the distribution of consumption among rich and poor households? We build a two‐sector‐two‐agent NK‐DSGE model and estimate it for India using Bayesian methods. We characterize optimal monetary policy and show that the welfare costs of redistributive policy shocks are significantly higher under nonoptimized rules."]
    December 12, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70025   open full text
  • Credit Easing versus Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Corporate and Government Bond Purchase Programs.
    Stefania D'amico, Iryna Kaminska.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 02, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nUsing security‐level data, we analyze the effects of UK corporate bond purchases (or credit easing, CE) and government bond purchases (or quantitative easing, QE) on corporate bond prices and issuance. Thus, we estimate CE's stock effects and its additional contribution relative to QE. We find that CE is more effective than QE in reducing credit spreads, especially for higher rated bonds, and in stimulating corporate bond issuance, which responds quite rapidly to corporate bond purchases. While QE pass‐through to corporate bond prices is significant and larger in the longer run than at announcement, it is often limited to the default‐free component of the corporate yield."]
    December 02, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70018   open full text
  • Does Deposit Insurance Promote Deposit Stability? Evidence from the Postal Savings System during the 1920s.
    Lee K. Davison, Carlos D. Ramirez.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 01, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe evaluate whether deposit insurance (DI) promotes liquidity by influencing depositor behavior. We use the postal savings (PS) system and state‐adopted DI schemes during the 1920s to examine the effect of bank suspensions on PS deposit growth in pairs of border cities (DI versus non‐DI). After a nearby bank suspension, (i) deposits in non‐DI‐PS offices increase sevenfold compared to deposits in adjacent DI‐PS offices, and (ii) county‐level deposits per bank decline in non‐DI counties but not in adjacent DI counties. In both cases, the effect steadily declines through the 1920s, consistent with the decreasing viability of the DI schemes.\n"]
    December 01, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70019   open full text
  • Taxation and Bank Liquidity Creation.
    Allen N. Berger, Dimitris K. Chronopoulos, Anna L. Sobiech, John O.S. Wilson.
    Journal of money credit and banking. November 26, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe investigate the impact of taxes on bank liquidity creation using the Tokyo bank tax as a quasi‐natural experiment. Drawing on data for Japanese banks, we find that the tax reduces retained earnings and capital, leading to a significant reduction in liquidity creation. The decline in liquidity creation is concentrated on the asset‐side of bank balance sheets. Banks reduce the supply of long‐term loans and shift toward short‐term government securities. The results suggest that tax‐induced erosion of capital constraints banks’ ability to provide liquidity through productive lending, and highlight the role of capital as a risk‐absorbing buffer.\n"]
    November 26, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70023   open full text
  • Riding the Housing Wave: Home Equity Withdrawal and Consumer Debt Composition.
    Anna Grodecka‐Messi, Jieying Li, Xin Zhang.
    Journal of money credit and banking. November 25, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nUsing a monthly panel data set of individuals' debt, we show that house price changes can explain a significant fraction of personal debt composition dynamics. We exploit the variation in local house price growth as shocks to homeowners' housing wealth to study the consequential adjustment of debt portfolio. We present direct evidence that homeowners reoptimize their debt structure by using parts of withdrawn home equity to pay down comparatively expensive nonmortgage debt during a housing boom. The effect is strongest for homeowners that have a high debt‐to‐income ratio and live in a municipality with a high literacy level. We find evidence that macroprudential policy and interest rates are important for consumer debt decisions."]
    November 25, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70001   open full text
  • Banks and Inequality: Evidence from a Nationwide Branch Expansion Policy.
    Ashish K. Sedai, Mahmut Yasar, William Crowder, Rikhia Bhukta.
    Journal of money credit and banking. November 22, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe analyze the causal impact of a nationwide bank expansion policy on economic inequality in India using a regression discontinuity design (RDD). The findings reveal significant reductions in both consumption and wealth inequality, driven by economic growth and structural transformation. We document strong β$\\beta$‐convergence in consumption and income, with middle‐income households experiencing the largest relative gains, underscoring the role of financial access in accelerating upward mobility. Our results demonstrate that bank expansion fosters economic diversification, supporting nonagricultural development and narrowing regional disparities. This paper contributes to the literature by providing evidence on how large‐scale financial inclusion policies reshape regional inequality dynamics and drive inclusive growth in developing economies."]
    November 22, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70017   open full text
  • Heterogeneity and the Macro‐Economic Effects of Changes in Loan‐to‐Value Limits.
    Emmanuel De Veirman, Jasper De Jong.
    Journal of money credit and banking. November 22, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nA prominent approach to estimating the macro‐economic effects of loan‐to‐value (LTV) limits involves the use of cross‐country panel regressions. This approach assumes that the effects of changes in LTV limits are constant across economies and across time. In this paper, we develop and implement an approach that uses the micro‐level LTV distribution to compute the effect of changes in the limit in an individual economy. Our approach reflects the intuition that when a limit binds for a larger fraction of households, changes in the limit have larger macro‐economic effects."]
    November 22, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70021   open full text
  • Shock Propagation within Multisector Firms.
    Jay Hyun, Ziho Park, Vladimir Smirnyagin.
    Journal of money credit and banking. November 12, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper studies the role of multisector firms in the cross‐sectoral propagation of economic shocks. By leveraging an increase in import competition from China as a source of a negative economic shock, we show that employment of an establishment in a given industry is negatively affected by shocks that impact establishments operating in other industries within the same firm. We explore a range of explanations for our findings, emphasizing the role of within‐firm input–output linkages and within‐firm diversification across sectors. At the sectoral level, shocks that propagate through firms' internal networks have a sizable impact on industry‐level employment dynamics."]
    November 12, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70016   open full text
  • Macroprudential Policy in the Euro Area.
    álvaro Fernández‐Gallardo, Iván Payá.
    Journal of money credit and banking. November 12, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper examines the development and impact of macroprudential policies in the euro area. We construct a novel index that captures the stance of macroprudential policy, and we highlight its main stylized facts since the inception of the euro in 1999. We combine a narrative approach and a structural VAR method to show that both unanticipated or surprise shocks and anticipated or news shocks contribute over the medium and long term to safeguard financial stability. We also find significant linkages between monetary and macroprudential policies that enhance the policy mix."]
    November 12, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70014   open full text
  • The Impact of the Dodd–Frank Act on Small U.S. Banks.
    Kuan Liu.
    Journal of money credit and banking. November 09, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nI estimate a dynamic banking model to quantify the impact of the Dodd–Frank Act on small banks and bank entry in the United States. The model features a bank portfolio‐choice problem with a risk‐return trade‐off in the loan market. My counterfactual experiments uncover a novel regulatory dis‐synergy: while tighter capital requirements mitigate bank risk, higher compliance costs create a risk‐seeking incentive for banks. The interaction of the two creates a strong destabilizing effect that aggravates bank failures in the short run. Furthermore, I find that increases in regulatory burdens explain about 70% of the collapse of bank entry since 2010."]
    November 09, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70015   open full text
  • Global Factors in Noncore Bank Funding and Exchange Rate Flexibility.
    Luís A.V. Catão, Jan Ditzen, Daniel Marcel Te Kaat.
    Journal of money credit and banking. October 29, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe show that fluctuations in the ratio of noncore to core funding in the banking systems of advanced economies are largely driven by three global factors of both real and financial natures, with country‐specific factors playing only a minor role. Exchange rate flexibility helps insulate the noncore to core ratio from such global factors. This insulation is stronger in periods away from global crises. Tighter prudential regulations appear to have a complementary effect to exchange rate insulation."]
    October 29, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70005   open full text
  • Estimating the Interest Rate Trend in a Shadow Rate Term Structure Model.
    Yang Han, Jun Ma.
    Journal of money credit and banking. October 24, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe introduce a no‐arbitrage dynamic term structure model integrated with a shadow rate and drifting trends to estimate the real interest rate trend in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany from 1972 to 2022. Our findings reveal declining interest rate trends across all three countries since the 1990s, underpinned by a significant co‐movement among them. We evaluate the long‐run correlations between the interest rate trends and various macro‐economic fundamentals to shed light on potential driving forces of the declining interest rate trend."]
    October 24, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70004   open full text
  • Misspecified Expectations among Professional Forecasters.
    Julio L. Ortiz.
    Journal of money credit and banking. October 23, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nAnalyzing professional forecasts, I find that a model of expectation formation in which respondents misperceive the law of motion of the data generating process, which in turn causes them to form an erroneous view of its underlying persistence, outperforms alternative models when fit to forecast errors and revisions. Misspecified expectations, which outperforms the alternatives in and out of sample and for a variety of macro‐economic variables, is successful in part because it allows forecast errors to be longer lived. I conclude that misspecified expectations can serve as a suitable way of modeling expectation formation among professional forecasters."]
    October 23, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70000   open full text
  • Nonresponse Bias in Household Inflation Expectations Surveys.
    Meltem Chadwick, Rennae Cherry, Jaqueson K. Galimberti.
    Journal of money credit and banking. October 22, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper uses microdata from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Household Inflation Expectations survey to evaluate the effects of nonresponses to the inflation expectations question in the survey. We find nonresponses lead to substantial underrepresentation of some demographic groups in the survey: young, female, low‐income, and minority ethnic groups have lower response rates. How the survey is conducted also affects item response rates. The survey response rates increase when the survey is conducted online and when inflation rates deviate from the central bank's target range. Using a sample selection model, we assess whether the survey has item nonresponse bias by comparing the demographic characteristics of responders and nonresponders. After accounting for selection, we find that observed differences in inflation expectations by gender, ethnicity, and income decrease substantially, while differences by age increase. We quantify and demonstrate how to adjust average aggregate and subgroup inflation expectations for bias caused by item nonresponse. We show that there is a positive bias, and the aggregate and subgroup inflation expectation series shift down after the adjustment. We also show that inflation expectations disagreement, both across and within subgroups, tends to decrease with the correction for nonresponse bias. These findings have important implications for survey design and monetary policy communication."]
    October 22, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70002   open full text
  • Real Effects of Exchange Rate Depreciation: The Roles of Bank Loan Supply and Interbank Markets.
    Thorsten Beck, Peter Bednarek, Daniel Te Kaat, Natalja Von Westernhagen.
    Journal of money credit and banking. October 22, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nUsing matched bank–firm‐level data and estimating difference‐in‐differences regressions around the 2014 depreciation of the euro, we show that exchange rate depreciations can lead to higher loan supply by raising banks' net worth. We focus on a new channel, interbank lending from large banks with high net dollar exposure to small banks without foreign‐currency asset exposure, but with a high share of exporting firms in their portfolio. We also find that German regions with such small banks experience higher output growth following the depreciation. These findings show the importance of banks' balance sheet structure and interbank markets in transmitting exchange rate shocks to the real economy."]
    October 22, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.70003   open full text
  • Loan Evergreening through Banks' Lenses: Evidence from Credit Product‐Level Data.
    Cecilia Dassatti, Rodrigo Lluberas, Francesc Rodriguez‐Tous.
    Journal of money credit and banking. October 10, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe study the different rationales behind zombie lending. Exploiting granular data of different corporate loan types, we identify loan evergreening as instances where firms receive interest‐only loans to repay existing amortizing loans. Avoidance of losses that erode bank capital is an important reason for zombie lending to multiple‐bank firms, but not to single‐bank firms. When banks provide loan evergreening to single‐bank firms, these firms are less likely to receive credit and additional loan evergreening by the bank in the future, more likely to default, and to start new lending relationships afterward; this is consistent with banks providing loan evergreening to allow less creditworthy borrowers to obtain additional financing elsewhere and reduce their own exposure. Finally, zombie lending to multiple‐bank firms leads to credit displacement, but zombie lending to single‐bank firms does not."]
    October 10, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13275   open full text
  • Market Effects of Central Bank Credit Markets Support Programs in Europe.
    Yuriy Kitsul, Oleg V. Sokolinskiy, Jonathan H. Wright.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 18, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nUsing responses of credit default swap indices to European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy announcements, we isolate a novel credit policy component of monetary policy surprises. We examine how such unconventional monetary policy surprises affect asset markets. Easing credit surprises lead to a somewhat delayed decline in corporate‐bond yields and cause declines in option‐implied measures of uncertainty about credit risk. Easing credit surprises also boost equity markets. Both net and gross corporate‐bond issuance increase as a result of easing credit surprises, with the largest response in investment grade issuance."]
    September 18, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13277   open full text
  • Macroprudential, Monetary Policy Synergies and Credit Supply: Evidence from Matched Bank‐Firm Loan‐Level Data in Brazil.
    Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez, João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso, Bernardus Ferdinandus Nazar Van Doornik.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 16, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper estimates the impact of countercyclical reserve requirements (RRs) on credit. We explore differential bank exposure to RRs in matched loan‐level data from Brazil, where RRs have been used extensively to pursue financial stability. We find that, after tightening RRs, more exposed banks reduce credit to firms; after loosening, they expand credit supply. During booms, private domestic banks with lower capital are more responsive to a tightening of RRs and to a simultaneous tightening of the short‐term policy rate. We also find that higher levels of economic policy uncertainty weaken this channel, and real effects in employment are modest.\n"]
    September 16, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13270   open full text
  • Financial Stability with Fire Sale Externalities.
    Ryuichiro Izumi, Yang Li.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 16, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nDo policies mitigating fire sale externalities improve financial stability? We study this question in a model of financial intermediation where banks are subject to self‐fulfilling bank runs and may sell long‐term assets subject to cash‐in‐the‐market pricing. Without regulations, banks hold more long‐term assets than socially optimal, causing inefficiently large fire sales in crises. Policymakers may regulate to mitigate this externality, but lack commitment. The optimal policy depends on how regulation affects the probability of self‐fulfilling runs, and we offer a robust control theory of this relationship. Ignoring this effect could inadvertently increase fragility and lower welfare. Internalizing it robustly increases welfare."]
    September 16, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13271   open full text
  • Monetary Policy and the Drifting Natural Rate of Interest.
    Sandra Daudignon, Oreste Tristani.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 15, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nEmpirical analyses find that the long‐run natural rate is subject to permanent shocks. How should monetary policy react to such shocks? Because of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates, the mere possibility of future movements toward zero of the long‐run natural rate imparts a downward bias on inflation expectations. To offset this bias, a central bank optimizing under commitment should not only rely on forward guidance at the ZLB, as recommended by the existing literature, but also adopt an expansionary bias away from the ZLB."]
    September 15, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13274   open full text
  • Liquidity Crises and the Market‐Maker of Last Resort.
    Charles M. Kahn, David Marshall, Robert L. Mcdonald.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 12, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe study market illiquidity in an economy subject to nonfundamental shocks. Asset trading occurs via decentralized bargaining. The model has multiple rational expectations equilibria; we associate certain Pareto‐inferior equilibria with liquidity crises. The government can improve welfare by acting as a “market‐maker of last resort” (MMLR), purchasing assets at above‐market prices. Several policies employed by the United States during the financial crisis are examples of MMLR. We consider “aggressive” and “conservative” MMLR policies. The aggressive policy supports the unique Pareto‐optimal equilibrium. The conservative policy, which embeds a “no‐bailout constraint,” only supports an inefficient equilibrium."]
    September 12, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13273   open full text
  • A Model of Post‐2008 Monetary Policy.
    Behzad Diba, Olivier Loisel.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 12, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe introduce banks and bank reserves into the basic New Keynesian model and allow the central bank to set both the interest rate on reserves (IOR rate) and the nominal stock of reserves. Our model can account, in qualitative terms, for three key features of U.S. inflation during the recent zero‐lower‐bound (ZLB) episodes: no significant deflation, little inflation volatility, and no significant inflation following quantitative‐easing policies. Crucial to this result is our assumption that demand for bank reserves got close to satiation, but did not reach full satiation. We introduce liquid government bonds into the model to reconcile our nonsatiation assumption with the fact that Treasury‐bill rates were often below the IOR rate during the ZLB episodes. Looking ahead, we explore the implications of our model for the normalization of monetary policy and its operational framework (floor system)."]
    September 12, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13276   open full text
  • CBDC as Imperfect Substitute to Bank Deposits: A Macroeconomic Perspective.
    Philippe Bacchetta, Elena Perazzi.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 28, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThe impact of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is analyzed in a closed‐economy model with monopolistic competition in banking and where CBDC is an imperfect substitute with bank deposits. The design of CBDC is characterized by its interest rate, its substitutability with bank deposits, and its relative liquidity. We examine how interest‐bearing CBDC would affect the banking sector, public finance, GDP, and welfare. Welfare may improve through three channels: seigniorage; a lower opportunity cost of money; and a redistribution away from bank owners. In our numerical analysis, we find a maximum welfare improvement of almost 50 bps in consumption terms."]
    August 28, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13268   open full text
  • Studying Generational Risk in a Large‐Scale Life‐Cycle Model.
    Jasmina Hasanhodzic, Laurence J. Kotlikoff.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 29, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe construct an 80‐period OLG model with aggregate shocks to study the size of generational risk and its mitigation via Social Security under different calibrations commonly considered in the literature. Our main findings are that generational risk is small or modest if one calibrates shocks to the volatility of macro aggregates and that Social Security exacerbates that risk. Calibrations that overstate the variability of macro aggregates generate substantially more generational risk, which Social Security can meaningfully mitigate. Finally, we find no support for the view that intergenerational policy can deliver Pareto improvements when safe interest rates run below the average growth rate. In our model, such policies entail welfare losses from crowding out that swamp oblique risk‐mitigation schemes."]
    July 29, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13257   open full text
  • How Does Public Sector Employment Affect Household Saving Rates? Evidence from China.
    Can Xu, Andreas Steiner.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 22, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper investigates the impact of public sector employment on household saving rates in China using representative household‐level data. After controlling for variables such as income, risk attitude, financial literacy, and demographic factors, we show that households headed by public sector employees have higher saving rates than other households. This positive association persists after controlling for self‐selection bias. We explain this striking finding by two empirical facts: First, public sector employees are more likely to save for their children. Second, public sector employees have a higher saving capacity than non–public sector employees due to higher hidden benefits."]
    July 22, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13251   open full text
  • Substitution between Public and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence on the Role of Nonhomothetic Preferences.
    Anne‐Christine Barthel, John Nana Francois.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper assumes a generalized Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) utility function, which allows for nonhomothetic preferences, to study the relationship between public and private consumption. This captures that the optimal ratio of government and private consumption may also depend on income and not exclusively on relative prices, hence correcting for a potential bias when estimating the degree of substitutability. We demonstrate the importance of nonhomotheticity using a cointegration‐panel approach and data from 16 Latin American and Caribbean countries from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that private and public consumption are gross complements. Fiscal policy implications are discussed."]
    July 11, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13264   open full text
  • Banks of a Feather: The Informational Advantage of Being Alike.
    Peter Bednarek, Valeriya Dinger, Alison Schultz, Natalja Von Westernhagen.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nBanks lend more to banks that are similar to them. Using data from the German credit register and proprietary supervisory data on the quality of banks' loan portfolio, we show that a similar portfolio of the lending and borrowing bank helps to overcome information asymmetries in interbank markets. While interbank lenders generally do not adjust their lending to information on the counterparty's portfolio quality, banks with an exposure to similar industries and regions strongly react to this private information. Lending between similar banks is particularly important for borrowers with opaque loan portfolios, which do not obtain credit from dissimilar peers."]
    July 11, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13252   open full text
  • Monetary and Macroprudential Policies under Dollar‐Denominated Foreign Debt.
    Hidehiko Matsumoto.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 08, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper studies monetary and macroprudential policies in a small open economy that borrows from abroad in foreign currency. The model features a novel mechanism in which exchange rate depreciation triggered by a borrowing constraint is amplified through balance of payments adjustments, increasing the real burden of foreign debt and causing crises. This mechanism induces overborrowing in normal times and excessive imports during crises. While contractionary monetary policy during crises mitigates depreciation, anticipation of such interventions exacerbates overborrowing ex ante. The optimal policy combines ex ante macroprudential taxes to correct overborrowing and ex post contractionary monetary policy to mitigate depreciation."]
    July 08, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13263   open full text
  • Heterogeneity in Imperfect Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence from a Novel Survey.
    Alistair Macaulay, James Moberly.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 07, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nUsing survey data from Germany, we study heterogeneity in how households form inflation expectations. We elicit (i) uncertainty in perceptions of current inflation and (ii) how persistent households perceive inflation to be. Combining these with standard survey questions on inflation, we infer laws of motion for expectations at the individual level. Based on averages alone, a standard model calibrated to our data predicts inflation shocks generate small and transitory responses in expectations and consumption. The considerable heterogeneity we observe in expectation formation, however, amplifies the transmission to aggregate consumption by an order of magnitude, and substantially increases its persistence. This amplification enables the model to match the large consumption effects of the temporary Value Added Tax (VAT) cut in Germany in 2020."]
    July 07, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13261   open full text
  • Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Czech Labor Market.
    Monika Junicke, Jakub Matějů, Haroon Mumtaz, Angeliki Theophilopoulou.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 07, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nUsing unique contract‐level data from the Czech labor market, we investigate how monetary policy shocks, identified by the high‐frequency surprises in interest rate futures, affect the distribution of wages and hours worked. Consistent with existing literature, our findings indicate that low‐wage groups are more impacted by these shocks than high‐wage counterparts. The novelty lies in our exploration of the heterogeneous effects across different demographic and sectoral groups. Our results reveal that age, education, sector of employment, and the length of employment contracts play important roles in how wages and working hours respond to policy shocks."]
    July 07, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13262   open full text
  • Fiscal Distress and Banking Performance: The Role of Macroprudential Regulation.
    Hiona Balfoussia, Harris Dellas, Dimitris Papageorgiou.
    Journal of money credit and banking. June 25, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nFiscal fragility undermines a government's ability to honor its bank deposit insurance pledge and induces a positive correlation between sovereign default risk and financial (bank) default risk. We show that this positive relation is reversed if bank capital requirements in fiscally weak countries are allowed to adjust optimally. The resulting higher requirements buttress the banking system and support higher output and welfare relative to the case where macroprudential policy does not vary with the degree of fiscal stress. Fiscal tenuousness also exacerbates the effects of other risk shocks. Nonetheless, the economy's response can be mitigated if macroprudential policy is adjusted optimally.\n"]
    June 25, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13247   open full text
  • Nonmonetary News in Fed Announcements: Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market.
    Michael Smolyansky, Gustavo Suarez.
    Journal of money credit and banking. June 24, 2025
    ["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWhen the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, do the prices of riskier assets fall relative to safer assets? Or, do investors interpret policy tightening as a signal that economic fundamentals are stronger than they previously believed, thus leading riskier assets to outperform? We present evidence that the latter of these two forces empirically dominates within the U.S. corporate bond market. Following an unanticipated monetary policy tightening, riskier corporate bonds outperform safer corporate bonds, demonstrating the importance of an informational, or nonmonetary, component within monetary policy announcements.\n"]
    June 24, 2025   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.13253   open full text
  • Austerity and Private Debt.
    Mathias Klein.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 11, 2017
    This study provides empirical evidence that the costs of austerity crucially depend on the level of private indebtedness. In particular, fiscal consolidations lead to severe contractions when implemented in high private‐debt states. Contrary, fiscal consolidations have no significant effect on economic activity when private debt is low. These results are robust to alternative definitions of private‐debt overhang, the composition of fiscal consolidations, and controlling for the state of the business cycle and government debt overhang. I show that deterioration in household balance sheets is important to understand private debt‐dependent effects of austerity.
    September 11, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12424   open full text
  • Financial Development, Credit, and Business Cycles.
    Tiago Pinheiro, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Marc Teignier.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 11, 2017
    How does financial development affect the magnitude of the business cycles fluctuations? We examine this question in a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and endogenous credit constraints based on Kiyotaki (1998). We show that there is a hump‐shaped relationship between the degree of financial frictions and the amplification of unexpected productivity shocks. This nonmonotonic relation is due to the fall in financial frictions having two opposite effects on the response of output. One effect is the reallocation of productive inputs between agent types, which, while active, increases with the fall in financial frictions. The other effect is the change in the demand of inputs, which decreases with the fall in financial frictions. At low levels of financial development, the reallocation effect dominates and a fall in financial frictions increases the amplification of productivity shocks. In contrast, at higher levels of financial development, a fall in financial frictions decreases the shock amplification because the reallocation effect disappears while the effect on the demand of inputs is still present.
    September 11, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12427   open full text
  • Profitability, Value, and Stock Returns in Production‐Based Asset Pricing without Frictions.
    Ronald J. Balvers, Li Gu, Dayong Huang.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 11, 2017
    In a production‐based asset pricing model without adjustment costs and with decreasing returns to scale following Brock (1982), stock returns at the firm level are determined by profitability, the book‐to‐market ratio, and the change in future profitability prospects. Although firms with low book‐to‐market ratios are normally more profitable and profitable firms are predicted to have higher returns, the stylized fact that book‐to‐market ratios positively forecast returns still holds theoretically, but with specific predicted exceptions. These implications are confirmed empirically.
    September 11, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12426   open full text
  • Inflation Targeting, Recursive Inattentiveness, and Heterogeneous Beliefs.
    Anna Agliari, Domenico Massaro, Nicolò Pecora, Alessandro Spelta.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 11, 2017
    We consider a monetary authority that provides an explicit inflation target in order to align expectations with the policy objective. However, biased perceptions of the target may arise due to imperfect information flows. We allow agents to revise expectations over time and we model their recursive choice among prediction strategies as an optimization problem under rational inattention. We then investigate whether a simple policy rule can steer the economy toward the targeted equilibrium. Our findings suggest that determinacy under rational expectations may not be sufficient to reach the target. Instead, monetary policy should be fine‐tuned to correct agents' biased beliefs.
    September 11, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12425   open full text
  • Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins.
    Juliana D. Araujo, Povilas Lastauskas, Chris Papageorgiou.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 11, 2017
    Motivated by the rise in capital flows to low‐income countries (LICs), we examine the nature of these flows and the factors affecting foreign investors' decision. Recognizing the presence of fixed investment costs, we analyze capital flows at both intensive and extensive margins. To fix ideas, we resort to the gravity literature for the estimating relationships which we embed into a two‐tier econometric framework with cross‐sectional dependence. Our main finding is that market entry costs are statistically and economically very detrimental to LICs. We also obtain the gravity‐type relationship for the destination income unconditionally but not after conditioning on relevant variables, as well as establish labor productivity as a robust attractor of capital inflows.
    September 11, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12423   open full text
  • Shadow Banks and Macroeconomic Instability.
    Roland Meeks, Benjamin Nelson, Piergiorgio Alessandri.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 11, 2017
    We develop a macroeconomic model in which commercial banks can offload risky loans to a “shadow” banking sector, and financial intermediaries trade in securitized assets. The model can account both for the business cycle comovement between output, traditional bank, and shadow bank credit, and for the behavior of macroeconomic variables in a liquidity crisis centered on shadow banks. We find that following a liquidity shock, stabilization policy aimed solely at the market in securitized assets is relatively ineffective.
    September 11, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12422   open full text
  • Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of LTROs during the Great Recession.
    Christophe Cahn, Julien Matheron, Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 11, 2017
    In response to the 2008–2009 crisis, faced with distressed financial intermediaries, the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked in longer term refinancing operations (LTROs) with full allotment. Using an estimated DSGE model with a frictional banking sector, we find that such liquidity injections have played a key role in averting a major credit crunch. A counterfactual analysis suggests that, absent these nonconventional measures, output, consumption, investment, and the GDP deflator would have been 2.5%, 0.5%, 9.7%, and 0.5% lower on average over 2009, respectively.
    September 11, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12421   open full text
  • Okun's Law: Fit at 50?
    Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh, Prakash Loungani.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 11, 2017
    This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short‐run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in 20 advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun's Law is a strong relationship in most countries, and one that is fairly stable over time. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of “jobless recoveries,” are flawed or exaggerated. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a 1% change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labor markets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
    September 11, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12420   open full text
  • Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero.
    Jinill Kim, Seth Pruitt.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2017
    Did the Federal Reserve's response to economic fundamentals change with the onset of the Global Financial Crisis? Estimation of a monetary policy rule to answer this question faces a censoring problem since the interest rate target has been set at the zero lower bound since late 2008. Surveys by forecasters allow us to sidestep the problem and to use conventional regressions and break tests. We find that, in the opinion of forecasters, the Fed's inflation response has decreased and the unemployment response has increased, which suggests that the Federal Reserve's commitment to stable inflation has become weaker in the eyes of the professional forecasters.
    May 17, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12391   open full text
  • Bank Capital Regulation of Trading Portfolios: An Assessment of the Basel Framework.
    Gordon J. Alexander, Alexandre M. Baptista.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2017
    In setting minimum capital requirements for trading portfolios, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (1996, 2011a, 2013) initially used Value‐at‐Risk (VaR), then both VaR and stressed VaR (SVaR), and most recently, stressed Conditional VaR (SCVaR). Accordingly, we examine the use of SCVaR to measure risk and set these requirements. Assuming elliptically distributed asset returns, we show that portfolios on the mean‐SCVaR frontier generally lie away from the mean‐variance (M‐V) frontier. In a plausible numerical example, we find that such portfolios tend to have considerably higher ratios of risk (measured by, e.g., standard deviation) to minimum capital requirement than those of portfolios on the M‐V frontier. Also, we find that requirements based on SCVaR are smaller than those based on both VaR and SVaR but exceed those based on just VaR. Finally, we find that requirements based on SCVaR are less procyclical than those based on either VaR or both VaR and SVaR. Overall, our paper suggests that the use of SCVaR to measure risk and set requirements is not a panacea.
    May 17, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12392   open full text
  • Precautionary Saving of Chinese and U.S. Households.
    Horag Choi, Steven Lugauer, Nelson C. Mark.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2017
    We employ a model of precautionary saving to study why household saving rates are high in China and low in the United States. The use of recursive preferences gives a convenient decomposition of saving into precautionary and nonprecautionary components. Over 80% of China's saving rate and nearly all U.S. saving arises from the precautionary motive. The difference between U.S. and Chinese household income growth rates is vastly more important than income risk for explaining the saving rates. The key mechanism is that precautionary savers have target wealth‐to‐income ratios, and rapid income growth necessitates high saving rates to maintain the ratio.
    May 17, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12393   open full text
  • Should the Federal Reserve Pay Competitive Interest on Reserves?
    Matthew Canzoneri, Robert Cumby, Behzad Diba.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2017
    In 2008, the Federal Reserve began paying interest on reserves. How should the Fed use this new policy instrument? As the Fed reduces its balance sheet, should it continue to satiate reserve demand and pay competitive interest on reserves? Here, we argue that this may be an inefficient use of the new policy instrument. Using a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE), augmented to include a banking sector and an interbank market, our benchmark calibration implies an optimal tax on reserves of about 20 to 40 basis points in the steady state, and a fluctuating tax rate in response to shocks.
    May 17, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12394   open full text
  • Fiscal Activism and the Zero Nominal Interest Rate Bound.
    Sebastian Schmidt.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2017
    In an economy where the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is an occasionally binding constraint and the government lacks a commitment technology, it may be desirable for society to appoint a policymaker who cares less about government spending stabilization relative to inflation and output gap stabilization than the private sector does. A policymaker of this type uses government spending more elastically to stabilize the economy. At the zero lower bound, the anticipation of aggressive fiscal expansions in future liquidity trap situations increases inflation expectations and lowers real interest rates, thereby mitigating the decline in output and inflation.
    May 17, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12395   open full text
  • Variations in Market Liquidity and the Intraday Interest Rate.
    Puriya Abbassi, Falko Fecht, Johannes Tischer.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2017
    Most central banks offer banks participating in large‐value real‐time gross settlement (RTGS) systems a free intraday overdraft facility to discourage banks from actively managing their daylight liquidity. In this paper, we ask whether this facility has kept the intraday interest rate at zero. Using a unique transaction‐level data set on collateralized interbank loans for 2006–12, we find that during periods of financial distress, rates for morning transactions are higher than those in the afternoon. Moreover, this intraday rate correlates with market liquidity, suggesting that rates contain a liquidity premium. This intraday pattern is reduced, but not eliminated by the Eurosystem's accommodative liquidity provision.
    May 17, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12396   open full text
  • Unstable Inflation Targets.
    William A. Branch, George W. Evans.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2017
    This paper studies long‐run inflation targets and stability in an imperfect information environment. When central banks set an inflation target that is not fully communicated, agents draw inferences about inflation from recent data and remain alert to structural change by forming expectations from a forecasting model that is estimated via discounted least squares. Inflation targets can lead agents' beliefs to depart from rational expectations through two channels. First, implementing a higher inflation target can lead to overshooting. Second, there can be nearly self‐fulfilling inflation, disinflation, or deflation that arises as an endogenous response to shocks. Policy implications for implementing a higher target without deanchoring expectations are discussed.
    May 17, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12397   open full text
  • The Pitch Rather Than the Pit: Investor Inattention, Trading Activity, and FIFA World Cup Matches.
    Michael Ehrmann, David‐Jan Jansen.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2017
    This paper analyzes stock market trading in 15 countries during the 2010 and 2014 soccer FIFA World Cups. We find evidence for substantial investor inattention during these major sporting events. The lack of attention for the trading pit is particularly large when the national soccer team is competing, with traded volumes declining by as much as 48%. During national team matches, prices on local stock markets can temporarily decouple from global financial market developments. These findings suggest that major sporting events can act as a laboratory in which to investigate investor inattention.
    May 17, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12398   open full text
  • Costly Information, Planning Complementarities, and the Phillips Curve.
    Sushant Acharya.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2017
    Sticky information models capture the sluggish response of aggregate prices to monetary shocks but fail to match the magnitude and frequency of price changes at the microlevel. This paper shows that accounting for the endogenous decision of when to acquire new information about different shocks can help overcome this shortcoming. In the calibrated model, prices change frequently and by large amounts in response to idiosyncratic shocks but sluggishly to monetary shocks. The paper also highlights that many predictions of the sticky information and rational inattention models are the same and thus robust to different specifications of information processing costs.
    May 17, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12399   open full text
  • What Drives the Owner‐Occupied and Rental Housing Markets? Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model.
    Xiaojin Sun, Kwok Ping Tsang.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 14, 2017
    Most dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with a housing market do not explicitly include a rental market and assume a tight mapping between house prices and rents over the business cycle. However, rents are much smoother than house prices in the data. We match this feature of the data by adding both an owner‐occupied housing market and a rental market in a standard DSGE model. The intertemporal preference shock accounts for more than half of the variation in house prices and contributes to residential investment fluctuations through the liquidity constraint, and nominal rigidity in rental contracts captures the variation in the price‐rent ratio.
    March 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12385   open full text
  • Regime Shifts in Price‐Dividend Ratios and Expected Stock Returns: A Present‐Value Approach.
    Kwang Hun Choi, Chang‐Jin Kim, Cheolbeom Park.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 14, 2017
    We incorporate regime shifts in the mean of price‐dividend ratios into the present value model of van Binsbergen and Koijen (2010) who propose a latent variable approach to modeling expected returns and dividend growth rates. We find that accounting for regime shifts results in much lower persistence of expected returns and higher volatility of expected returns, and thus higher in‐sample predictability, when compared to the results from the van Binsbergen and Koijen (2010) model. We also show that the main source of the increase in the mean of price‐dividend ratios in the mid‐1990s is a decrease in the mean of expected returns.
    March 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12384   open full text
  • When Preferences for a Stable Interest Rate Become Self‐Defeating.
    Ragna Alstadheim, øistein Røisland.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 14, 2017
    Monetary policymakers often seem to have preferences for a stable interest rate, in addition to stable inflation and output. In this paper, we investigate the implications of having an interest rate level term in the loss function when the policymaker lacks commitment technology. We show that such preferences may become self‐defeating, in the sense that they generate a less stable interest rate than in the case without preferences for interest rate stability.
    March 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12383   open full text
  • Foreign Bank Behavior during Financial Crises.
    Jonathon Adams‐Kane, Julián A. Caballero, Jamus Jerome Lim.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 14, 2017
    This paper studies whether lending by foreign banks is affected by financial crises. We pair a bank‐level data set of foreign ownership with information on banking crises and examine whether the credit supply of majority foreign‐owned banks that underwent home‐country crises differ systematically from those of other foreign banks. In contrast to the literature, our broad global coverage allows us to exploit variations between foreign banks; this enables us to identify an average treatment effect directly attributable to crises. Our baseline results show that banks exposed to home‐country crises between 2007–08 exhibit changes in lending patterns that are lower by between 13% and 42% than their noncrisis counterparts. This finding is robust to potential alternative explanations, and also holds, though less strongly, for the 1997/98 Asian crisis.
    March 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12382   open full text
  • Coordinating Monetary and Macroprudential Policies.
    Bianca De Paoli, Matthias Paustian.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 14, 2017
    This paper studies noncooperative games between a monetary authority and a macroprudential regulator whose objectives are a subset of those in the social loss function. The analysis is based on a New Keynesian model with a financial sector and a financial friction à la Gertler and Karadi (2011). When the friction affects the financing of all factors of production equally, macroprudential policy is shown to be a powerful additional tool, fully eliminating inefficiencies, regardless of the source of the shock and no matter whether the central bank and the regulator cooperate. But when trade‐offs are present and policy is discretionary, the institutional arrangements become crucial. While coordination leads to higher welfare than a setting in which each authority takes the decision rule of the other as given (namely, the Nash equilibrium), our analysis shows that a noncooperative setting in which the macroprudential authority acts as a leader within the period can be superior to cooperation. Finally, our conclusions are unaffected by whether the macroprudential instrument affects funding costs or acts as a liquidity requirement.
    March 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12381   open full text
  • Supply‐Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France.
    Jérémie Cohen‐Setton, Joshua K. Hausman, Johannes F. Wieland.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 14, 2017
    The effects of supply‐side policies in depressed economies are controversial. We shed light on this debate using evidence from France in the 1930s. In 1936, France departed from the gold standard and implemented mandatory wage increases and hours restrictions. Deflation ended but output stagnated. We present time‐series and cross‐sectional evidence that these supply‐side policies, in particular the 40‐hour law, contributed to French stagflation. These results are inconsistent both with the standard one‐sector New Keynesian model and with a medium scale, multisector model calibrated to match our cross‐sectional estimates. We conclude that the New Keynesian model is a poor guide to the effects of supply‐side shocks in depressed economies.
    March 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12380   open full text
  • Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area: Macroeconomic Determinants and the Effect of Monetary Policy on Debt Burdens.
    Michael Ehrmann, Michael Ziegelmeyer.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 14, 2017
    This paper provides novel evidence on the role of the macroeconomic environment for households’ choice between fixed‐interest‐rate and adjustable‐interest‐rate mortgages (ARMs) in the euro area. We find that relatively more ARMs are taken out when economic growth is strong, the interest rate spread is high, or unemployment shows low volatility. A simulation exercise shows that a reduction in mortgage rates as witnessed during the monetary easing in the course of the global financial crisis produces a substantial decline in debt burdens among mortgage‐holding households, especially in countries where households have higher debt burdens and a larger share of ARMs.
    March 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12386   open full text
  • Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008–2013.
    Ray C. Fair.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 14, 2017
    This paper provides estimates of the effects of the fall in financial and housing wealth in 2008–09 on overall macroeconomic activity. When the wealth losses are run through a structural macroeconometric model, it is estimated that the fall in wealth contributed about 2.1 percentage points to the rise in the unemployment rate in 2009 and about 3.3 points in 2010. The contribution to the fall in real GDP was 4.5% and 5.4% in the 2 years. These estimates account for most—but not all—of the recessionary increase in unemployment. The remaining increase in unemployment may have resulted more directly from financial stresses, but little evidence is found for this in this study.
    March 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12387   open full text
  • A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output.
    Angelia L. Grant, Joshua C.C. Chan.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 14, 2017
    We compare a number of widely used trend‐cycle decompositions of output in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. This is motivated by the often markedly different results from these decompositions—different decompositions have broad implications for the relative importance of real versus nominal shocks in explaining variations in output. Using U.S. quarterly real GDP, we find that the overall best model is an unobserved components model with two features: (i) a nonzero correlation between trend and cycle innovations and (ii) a break in trend output growth in 2007. The annualized trend output growth decreases from about 3.4% to 1.2%–1.5% after the break. The results also indicate that real shocks are more important than nominal shocks. The slowdown in trend output growth is robust when we expand the set of models to include bivariate unobserved components models.
    March 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12388   open full text
  • Financial Markets' Views about the Euro–Swiss Franc Floor.
    Urban J. Jermann.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 14, 2017
    Exchange rates and option prices incorporate market participants' views about the credibility and the effects of exchange rate targets. I present a model to determine exchange rates under policy targets that can be used to price options. The model is estimated with Euro–Swiss Franc exchange rate and options price data. In the first few months of the minimum exchange rate policy, the implied survival probability of the policy for a 3‐month horizon was typically less than 75%. Over time, the credibility increased and this probability reached 95% in August 2014.
    March 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12389   open full text
  • On the Credibility of the Euro/Swiss Franc Floor: A Financial Market Perspective.
    Markus Hertrich, Heinz Zimmermann.
    Journal of money credit and banking. March 14, 2017
    We estimate the risk‐neutral break probabilities of a realignment of the EUR/CHF 1.20 floor, maintained by the SNB from September 6, 2011, to January 15, 2015, using put options and an option pricing model, which assumes a lower barrier for the exchange rate. We estimate probabilities considerably different from zero, even when the exchange rate traded far above the floor. We observe a drastic increase in the break probabilities up to approximately 50% shortly before the floor was abandoned. From an option market perspective, the credibility of the SNB in maintaining the floor was, thus, substantially lower than publicly claimed.
    March 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12390   open full text
  • Why Do Shoppers Use Cash? Evidence from Shopping Diary Data.
    Naoki Wakamori, Angelika Welte.
    Journal of money credit and banking. January 27, 2017
    Recent studies find that cash remains the dominant payment choice for small‐value transactions despite the prevalence of alternative payment methods such as debit and credit cards. An important policy question is whether consumers truly prefer using cash or merchants restrict card usage. Using unique shopping diary data, we estimate a payment choice model with individual heterogeneity, controlling for merchants' acceptance of cards. Based on a policy simulation imposing universal card acceptance among merchants, we find that overall cash usage would decrease by only 8.0 percentage points, implying that cash usage in small‐value transactions is driven mainly by consumer preferences.
    January 27, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12379   open full text
  • On the Persistence of Cross‐Country Inequality Measures.
    Dimitris Christopoulos, Peter Mcadam.
    Journal of money credit and banking. January 27, 2017
    We examine inequality persistence in a multicountry unbalanced panel using a battery of stationarity and long‐run memory tests. Inequality is measured by the Gini indices of income inequality. Results suggest that we cannot reject a unit root in inequality measures. This applies to both gross and net indices: thus while redistributive measures have reduced the level of inequality, they have not sufficiently modified its apparent unit root. A more likely conclusion is that inequality measures are exceptionally persistent if not strictly a unit root. We also introduce a new panel stationarity test useful for series subject to unknown structural breaks.
    January 27, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12374   open full text
  • Rational Inattention in Uncertain Business Cycles.
    Fang Zhang.
    Journal of money credit and banking. January 27, 2017
    The paper proposes endogenous information choice as a channel through which uncertainty affects price dynamics. I consider a rational inattention model with volatility uncertainty and endogenous information processing capability. According to the model, firms' learning and optimal attention exhibits inertia and asymmetry in response to volatility changes. Firms choose to process more information when uncertainty rises, especially about aggregate conditions, and their pricing behavior changes accordingly. Using a Markov‐switching factor‐augmented vector autoregression (MS‐FAVAR), the paper also documents a significant positive correlation between volatility and firms' responsiveness to macro‐ and microlevel shocks, consistent with model predictions.
    January 27, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12373   open full text
  • The Risk‐Taking Channel of Monetary Policy in the U.S.: Evidence from Corporate Loan Data.
    Manthos D. Delis, Iftekhar Hasan, Nikolaos Mylonidis.
    Journal of money credit and banking. January 27, 2017
    To study the presence of a risk‐taking channel in the U.S., we build a comprehensive data set from the syndicated corporate loan market and measure monetary policy using different measures, most notably Taylor (1993) and Romer and Romer (2004) residuals. We identify a negative relation between monetary policy rates and bank risk‐taking, especially in the run up to the 2007 financial crisis. However, this effect is purely supply‐side driven only when using Taylor residuals and an ex ante measure of bank risk‐taking. Our results highlight the sensitivity of the potency of the risk‐taking channel to the measures of monetary policy innovations.
    January 27, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12372   open full text
  • Changes in the Federal Reserve Communication Strategy: A Structural Investigation.
    Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi.
    Journal of money credit and banking. January 27, 2017
    This paper structurally investigates the changes in the Fed's communication strategy since the mid‐1990s through the lens of anticipated and unanticipated disturbances to a Taylor rule. The anticipated disturbances are identified using Treasury bond yield data in estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a term structure of interest rates. Our estimation results show that the Fed's decisions were unanticipated for market participants until 1999, but thereafter a larger portion of its future policy actions tended to be communicated in advance. We also find that the relative contribution of the anticipated monetary policy disturbances to macroeconomic fluctuations became larger after 1999. The bond yield data is indispensable to these results, since it contains crucial information on an expected future path of the federal funds rate.
    January 27, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12378   open full text
  • Interest Rates in Trade Credit Markets.
    Klenio Barbosa, Humberto Moreira, Walter Novaes.
    Journal of money credit and banking. January 27, 2017
    All things equal, interest rates should increase with the borrower's risk. And yet, Klapper, Laeven, and Rajan (2012) cannot find such a positive relation in a broad sample of trade credit contracts. We shed some light on this puzzle by arguing that competition between informed and uninformed suppliers weakens the link between the trade credit cost and the borrower's creditworthiness. Our model implies that trade credit rates are more likely to increase with the borrower's risk if suppliers are less profitable, have high cost of funds, or sell inputs to firms plagued by moral hazard and financial distress.
    January 27, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12369   open full text
  • The Effects of Regulating Hidden Add‐On Costs.
    K. Jeremy Ko, Jared Williams.
    Journal of money credit and banking. January 27, 2017
    We examine the welfare effects of price and disclosure regulation in a model where firms can shroud add‐on costs, such as penalty fees for consumer financial products. Such regulation can increase or decrease welfare even when there are no direct costs. There are, however, strong complementarities between price controls and disclosure mandates: conditional on disclosure being mandated, price controls always (weakly) increase welfare, and conditional on prices being sufficiently constrained, disclosure mandates always (weakly) increase welfare.
    January 27, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12368   open full text
  • Liquidity Provision, Bank Capital, and the Macroeconomy.
    Gary Gorton, Andrew Winton.
    Journal of money credit and banking. January 27, 2017
    New bank equity must come from somewhere. In general equilibrium, raising bank capital requirements means either that banks produce less short‐term debt (as debt holders must become shareholders), or short‐term debt is not reduced and the banking system acquires nonbank equity (as the shareholders in nonbanks become shareholders in banks). The welfare effects involve a trade‐off because bank debt is special as it is used for transactions purposes, but more bank capital can reduce the chance of bank failure (producing welfare losses).
    January 27, 2017   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12367   open full text
  • Corridor System and Interest Rates: Volatility and Asymmetry.
    Jiho Lee.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 16, 2016
    The corridor system in its current form is believed to reduce the volatility of overnight interest rates and to eliminate any chance of persistent upward or downward bias. The model presented here serves to highlight two main findings: one is that a central bank can further reduce the volatility of overnight interest rates by allowing banks some flexibility to meet their reserve targets within a small range, as observed in the UK data. The second is that a seemingly symmetric corridor may be asymmetric in practice due to several distortions, as the UK and euro area data suggest.
    December 16, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12364   open full text
  • Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks.
    Emily Anderson, Atsushi Inoue, Barbara Rossi.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 16, 2016
    This paper studies empirical facts regarding the effects of unexpected changes in aggregate macroeconomic fiscal policies on consumers that differ depending on individual characteristics. We use data from the Consumption Expenditure Survey to estimate individual‐level responses and multipliers for government spending. We find that unexpected fiscal shocks have substantially different effects on consumers depending on their income and age levels: the wealthiest individuals tend to behave according to predictions of standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) models, whereas the poorest ones behave according to standard IS–LM (non‐Ricardian) models, most likely due to credit constraints. Furthermore, government spending policy shocks tend to decrease consumption inequality.
    December 16, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12366   open full text
  • Fiscal Adjustment and Inflation Targeting in Less Developed Countries.
    Edward F. Buffie, Manoj Atolia.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 16, 2016
    Inflation targeting may not be viable in less developed countries (LDCs) where policymakers rely too heavily on cuts in infrastructure investment to balance the budget. Using a mix of analytical and numerical methods, we demonstrate that the equilibrium ceases to be saddle point stable under active policy when infrastructure cuts account for 30–70% of fiscal adjustment and the return on infrastructure exceeds a comparatively low threshold value. The result is robust to the form of the Taylor rule, the degree of real wage flexibility, the initial level of debt, the choice of a balanced‐budget or debt‐targeting rule, and the q‐elasticity of private investment spending.
    December 16, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12365   open full text
  • Capital Regulation and Competition as a Moderator for Banking Stability.
    Eva Schliephake.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 16, 2016
    Capital regulation forces banks to fund a substantial amount of their investments with equity. This creates a buffer against losses but also increases the cost of funding. If higher funding costs translate into higher loan interest rates, the bank's assets are also likely to become more risky, which may destabilize the lending bank. This paper argues that the level of competition in the banking sector can determine whether the buffer or cost effect prevails. The endogenous level of competition may be crucial in determining the efficiency of capital regulation in undercapitalized banking sectors, with excess capacities and correlated risks.
    December 16, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12371   open full text
  • Rollover Risk, Liquidity and Macroprudential Regulation.
    Toni Ahnert.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 16, 2016
    I study rollover risk in wholesale funding markets when intermediaries hold liquidity ex ante and fire sales may occur ex post. Multiple equilibria exist in a global rollover game: intermediate liquidity holdings support equilibria with both positive and zero expected liquidation. A simple uniqueness refinement pins down the private liquidity choice, which balances the forgone expected return on investment with reduced fragility and costly liquidation. Due to fire sales, liquidity holdings are strategic substitutes. Intermediaries free ride on the holdings of other intermediaries, causing excessive liquidation. To internalize the systemic nature of liquidity, a macroprudential authority imposes liquidity buffers.
    December 16, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12363   open full text
  • Gender Bias and Credit Access.
    Steven Ongena, Alexander Popov.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 16, 2016
    We extract an exogenous measure of gender bias from survey responses by descendants of U.S. immigrants on questions about the role of women in society. We then use data on around 6,000 small business firms from 17 countries and find that in high‐gender‐bias countries, female entrepreneurs are more likely to opt out of the loan application process and to resort to informal finance, even though banks do not appear to actively discriminate against them. These results are not driven by credit risk differences between female‐ and male‐owned firms or by any idiosyncrasies in the set of countries in our sample.
    December 16, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12361   open full text
  • Local Trends in Price‐to‐Dividend Ratios—Assessment, Predictive Value, and Determinants.
    Helmut Herwartz, Malte Rengel, Fang Xu.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 16, 2016
    Persistent variations of the log price‐to‐dividend ratio (PD) and their economic determinants have attracted a lively discussion in the literature. We suggest a gradually time‐varying state process to govern the persistence of the PD. The adopted state‐space approach offers favorable model diagnostics and finds particular support in out‐of‐sample stock return prediction. We show that this slowly evolving mean process is jointly shaped by the consumption risk, the demographic structure, and the proportion of firms with traditional dividend payout policy during the past 60 years. In particular, the volatility of consumption growth plays the dominant role.
    December 16, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12370   open full text
  • What Moves Investment Growth?
    Long Chen, Zhi Da, Borja Larrain.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 16, 2016
    We use accounting identities to decompose unexpected changes in investment growth into surprises to current cash‐flow growth and stock returns, and revisions of expectations about future cash‐flow growth and future discount rates. Using a vector autoregressive model we find that current cash‐flow surprises account for the largest element of the variance decomposition. Investment growth and current cash‐flow surprises are negatively correlated with news about future cash‐flow growth, which can be expected from persistent productivity shocks and decreasing returns to scale. We find little evidence of a discount rate channel for investment since return terms are small and have unintuitive signs.
    December 16, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12360   open full text
  • Bank Leverage Cycles and the External Finance Premium.
    Ansgar Rannenberg.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 16, 2016
    By combining the approaches of Gertler and Karadi (2011) (GK) and Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999) (BGG), I develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with leverage constraints both in the banking and in the nonfinancial firm sector. I calibrate this “full model” to US data. The full model matches the relative volatility of the external finance premium and the procyclicality of bank leverage and thus outperforms both a BGG and a GK‐type model. For a reasonably calibrated combination of balance sheet shocks, the model reproduces a substantial share of the contraction (increase) of investment (the external finance premium) observed during the “Great Recession.”
    December 16, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12359   open full text
  • Macro Credit Policy and the Financial Accelerator.
    Charles T. Carlstrom, Timothy S. Fuerst.
    Journal of money credit and banking. December 16, 2016
    This paper studies macro credit policies within the financial accelerator model of Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999). The focus is on borrower‐based restrictions on lending such as loan‐to‐value (LTV) ratios. We find that the efficacy of cyclical taxes on LTV ratios depends upon the nature of the underlying loan contract. If the loan contract contains equity‐like features such as indexation to aggregate conditions, then there is little role for cyclical taxation. But if the loan contract is not indexed to aggregate conditions, then there are substantial gains to procyclical taxes on LTV ratios.
    December 16, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12362   open full text
  • Like Father Like Sons? The Cost of Sovereign Defaults in Reduced Credit to the Private Sector.
    Rui Esteves, João Tovar Jalles.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 15, 2016
    We investigate the impact of sovereign defaults on the ability of the corporate sector in emerging nations to finance itself abroad. We test the hypothesis that sovereign defaults have a negative spillover onto the private sector through credit rationing. We explore a novel data set covering the majority of corporates in emerging nations that received foreign capital between 1880 and 1913. Results confirm that credit rationing existed, was very large, and persisted long beyond the default settlement. The private sector paid a severe cost for their governments’ debt intolerance, with negative implications for their growth.
    September 15, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12341   open full text
  • Mixed Integer Programming Revealed Preference Tests of Utility Maximization and Weak Separability of Consumption, Leisure, and Money.
    Per Hjertstrand, James L. Swofford, Gerald A. Whitney.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 15, 2016
    Swofford and Whitney (1987, 1988, 1994) investigated the validity of two key assumptions underlying representative agent models of macroeconomics. These assumptions are utility maximization and weak separability. Using mixed integer programming, we check revealed preference conditions for these assumptions. We find that M1, money defined by Friedman and Schwartz (1963), and a broad aggregate are weakly separable. We find that consumption goods and leisure and nondurables and services are weakly separable. We find that M2, M3, and MZM are not weakly separable. Finally, we find three categories of consumption, durables, nondurables and services, do not form an aggregate.
    September 15, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12342   open full text
  • The CARD Act and Young Borrowers: The Effects and the Affected.
    Peter Debbaut, Andra Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 15, 2016
    We study a new law that restricts credit to individuals under age 21. We first use a difference‐in‐difference approach to estimate the effect of the law on credit card availability. Following the passage of the law, individuals under age 21 are 8 percentage points (15%) less likely to have a credit card, have fewer cards, and, conditional on having a card at all, are 35% more likely to have a cosigned card. We then use data from before the passage of the law to identify the characteristics of those individuals most likely to be affected by the Act.
    September 15, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12340   open full text
  • Bank Recapitalization, Regulatory Intervention, and Repayment.
    Thomas Kick, Michael Koetter, Tigran Poghosyan.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 15, 2016
    We use prudential supervisory data for all German banks during 1994–2010 to test if regulatory interventions affect the likelihood that bailed‐out banks repay capital support. Accounting for the selection bias inherent in nonrandom bank bailouts by insurance schemes and the endogenous administration of regulatory interventions, we show that regulators can increase the likelihood of repayment substantially. An increase in intervention frequencies by one standard deviation increases the annual probability of capital support repayment by 7%. Sturdy interventions, like restructuring orders, are effective, whereas weak measures reduce repayment probabilities. Intervention effects last up to 5 years.
    September 15, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12339   open full text
  • Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound.
    Michael D. Bauer, Glenn D. Rudebusch.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 15, 2016
    We show that conventional dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) estimated on recent U.S. data severely violate the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates and deliver poor forecasts of future short rates. In contrast, shadow‐rate DTSMs account for the ZLB by construction, capture the resulting distributional asymmetry of future short rates, and achieve good forecast performance. These models provide more accurate estimates of the most likely path for future monetary policy—including the timing of policy liftoff from the ZLB and the pace of subsequent policy tightening. We also demonstrate the benefits of including macroeconomic factors in a shadow‐rate DTSM when yields are constrained near the ZLB.
    September 15, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12338   open full text
  • Two Extensive Margins of Credit and Loan‐to‐Value Policies.
    Pedro Gete, Michael Reher.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 15, 2016
    We analyze a model of mortgage markets, housing tenure choice, heterogeneous agents, and default with closed form solutions. We uncover new insights which may inspire empirical work, and we ground already established insights in a series of tractable expressions. Then we study optimal loan‐to‐value (LTV) regulation and show that the choice of an LTV cap should balance the opposing forces of access to homeownership and the negative externalities associated with default. Homeownership affordability concerns induce procyclical elements into optimal regulation which attenuate the countercyclical regulation justified by the negative default externalities.
    September 15, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12337   open full text
  • A Model of the Confidence Channel of Fiscal Policy.
    Bernardo Guimaraes, Caio Machado, Marcel Ribeiro.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 15, 2016
    This article presents a simple macroeconomic model where government spending affects aggregate demand directly and indirectly, through an expectational channel. Prices are fully flexible and the model is static, so intertemporal issues play no role. There are three important elements in the model: (i) fixed adjustment costs for investment, which create an inaction zone; (ii) noisy idiosyncratic information about the aggregate economy; and (iii) imperfect substitution among private goods and goods provided by the government. An increase in government spending raises demand for private goods and may prevent a coordination failure. The optimal level of government expenditure is high when the desired level of investment is low, which we interpret as a time of low economic activity.
    September 15, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12336   open full text
  • Credit Availability and Asset Pricing Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Markets.
    David C. Ling, Andy Naranjo, Benjamin Scheick.
    Journal of money credit and banking. September 15, 2016
    This article examines credit frictions and asset pricing in public and private markets with varying liquidity. We find that a tightening in credit availability is negatively related to subsequent price movements in private and public commercial real estate markets. Assets trading in illiquid segments of these markets are also susceptible to a feedback effect whereby changes in asset prices predict subsequent changes in credit availability. Controlling for investor demand, our findings suggest credit constraints play an economically significant asset pricing role in markets that are both highly levered and relatively illiquid.
    September 15, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12335   open full text
  • Understanding Post‐Euro Law‐of‐One‐Price Deviations.
    Marina Glushenkova, Marios Zachariadis.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 08, 2016
    We put together a unique panel of thousands of good‐level prices before and after the euro to compare the determinants and understand the evolution of goods price dispersion across Europe over time. We find that tradeability and nontraded inputs play a significantly smaller role for cross‐country price dispersion after the adoption of the euro, and for Eurozone economies as compared to European Union ones. We then compare the distributions of law‐of‐one‐price (LOP) deviations over time to understand how the degree of integration across European economies changed after the euro. Our tests reveal that the distributions after the euro are typically significantly different from those before, consistent with a greater degree of integration. Utilizing our unique panel data set to trace the location of individual goods in the distribution of LOP deviations, we ask how the price advantage or disadvantage evident in these price distributions evolves over time, and whether goods characteristics play a role for the persistence of these LOP deviations. LOP deviations for these goods are highly correlated over 5‐ or 10‐ year horizons, and correlations remain significantly high over longer horizons. These correlations are greater for homogeneous as compared to differentiated goods and vary across countries. Finally, for most of these European economies and goods, price advantage is typically revealed to be more persistent than price disadvantage.
    August 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12327   open full text
  • Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle.
    Francis Breedon, Dagfinn Rime, Paolo Vitale.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 08, 2016
    We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time‐varying risk premium consistent with that bias. Using 10 years of data on FX order flow, we find that more than half of the forward bias is accounted for by order flow—with the rest being explained by expectational errors. We also find that carry trading increases currency‐crash risk in that order flow generates negative skewness in FX returns.
    August 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12328   open full text
  • Uncertainty in an Interconnected Financial System, Contagion, and Market Freezes.
    Mei Li, Frank Milne, Junfeng Qiu.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 08, 2016
    This paper studies contagion and market freezes caused by uncertainty in financial network structures. Our model demonstrates that in a financial system where financial institutions are interconnected, a negative shock to an individual financial institution could spread to other institutions, causing market freezes because of creditors' uncertainty about the financial network structure. Our model also reveals that when both a large creditor and a continuum of small creditors are present, the size of the large creditor will affect the severity of market freezes substantially. Moreover, our model is used to examine central bank policies to alleviate market freezes.
    August 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12329   open full text
  • Re‐Use of Collateral in the Repo Market.
    Lucas Marc Fuhrer, Basil Guggenheim, Silvio Schumacher.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 08, 2016
    This paper introduces a methodology to estimate the re‐use of collateral based on actual transaction data. With a comprehensive data set from the Swiss franc repo market we are able to provide the first systematic study on the re‐use of collateral. We find that re‐using collateral was most popular prior to the financial crisis when roughly 10% of the outstanding interbank volume was secured with re‐used collateral. Furthermore, we show that the re‐use of collateral increases with the scarcity of collateral. By giving an estimate of the collateral re‐use and explaining its drivers, the paper contributes to the on‐going debate on collateral availability.
    August 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12330   open full text
  • Preferential Regulatory Treatment and Banks' Demand for Government Bonds.
    Clemens Bonner.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 08, 2016
    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of preferential regulatory treatment on banks' demand for government bonds. Using unique transaction‐level data, our analysis suggests that preferential treatment in microprudential liquidity and capital regulation significantly increases banks' demand for government bonds. Liquidity and capital regulation also seem to incentivize banks to substitute other bonds with government bonds. We also find evidence that this “regulatory effect” leads banks to reduce lending to the real economy.
    August 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12331   open full text
  • Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited.
    Michael T. Belongia, Peter N. Ireland.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 08, 2016
    More than 50 years ago, Friedman and Schwartz examined historical data for the United States and found evidence of procyclical movements in the money stock, which led corresponding movements in output. We find similar correlations in more recent data; these appear most clearly when Divisia monetary aggregates are used in place of the Federal Reserve's official, simple‐sum measures. When we use information in Divisia money to estimate a structural vector autoregression, identified monetary policy shocks appear to have large and persistent effects on output and prices, with a lag that has lengthened considerably since the early 1980s.
    August 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12332   open full text
  • Endogenous Price Stickiness, Trend Inflation, and Macroeconomic Stability.
    Takushi Kurozumi.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 08, 2016
    Previous studies show that higher trend inflation is more likely to induce indeterminacy of equilibrium in sticky‐price models based on micro evidence that each period a fraction of prices is kept unchanged. This paper demonstrates that when the degree of price stickiness is endogenously determined in a Calvo model, indeterminacy caused by higher trend inflation is less likely. A key factor for determinacy is the long‐run inflation elasticity of output implied by the New Keynesian Phillips curve. This elasticity declines substantially with higher trend inflation in the case of exogenously given price stickiness, whereas in the case of endogenous price stickiness the decline in the elasticity is mitigated because higher trend inflation leads to a higher probability of price adjustment.
    August 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12333   open full text
  • Optimal Monetary Policy and Transparency under Informational Frictions.
    Wataru Tamura.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 08, 2016
    This paper examines the optimal monetary policy and central bank transparency in an economy where firms set prices under informational frictions. The economy is subject to two types of shocks determining the efficient output level and firms' desired markups. To minimize the welfare‐reducing output gap and price dispersion between firms, the central bank controls firms' incentives and expectations by using a monetary instrument and disclosing information on the realized shocks. This paper shows that an optimal policy comprises the disclosure of a linear combination of the two shocks and the adjustment of monetary instruments contingent on the disclosed information.
    August 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12334   open full text
  • Announcements of Interest Rate Forecasts: Do Policymakers Stick to Them?
    Nikola Mirkov, Gisle James Natvik.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 22, 2016
    If central banks value the ex post accuracy of their published forecasts, previously announced interest rate paths might influence the current policy rate. We explore if “forecast adherence” has affected monetary policy in New Zealand and Norway, where central banks have published their interest rate forecasts the longest. We derive and estimate policy rules with separate weights on past interest rate forecasts and find that they have explanatory power for current policy decisions, over and above their correlation with other conventional interest rate rule arguments.
    July 22, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12321   open full text
  • Lumpy Investment, Lumpy Inventories.
    Rüdiger Bachmann, Lin Ma.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 22, 2016
    The link between the microenvironment (frictions and heterogeneity) and the macroeconomic dynamics of general equilibrium macromodels is influenced by exactly how general equilibrium closes the model. We make this observation concrete using the recent literature on how nonconvex capital adjustment costs influence aggregate investment dynamics. We introduce inventories into a two‐sector lumpy investment model and find that nonconvex capital adjustment costs dampen and propagate investment impulse responses, more so than without inventories. With two means of transferring consumption into the future, fixed capital and inventories, the tight link between aggregate saving and fixed capital investment is broken.
    July 22, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12319   open full text
  • A New Measure of Equity and Cash Flow Duration: The Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium Revisited.
    David Schröder, Florian Esterer.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 22, 2016
    This article reexamines the duration‐based explanation of the value premium using novel estimates of the firms' equity and cash flow durations based on analyst forecasts. We show that the value premium can be explained by cross‐sectional differences in the shares' equity durations, but not by their cash flow durations. Different from the duration‐based explanation of the value premium that explains the value premium with cross‐sectional differences in the firm's cash flow timing, we find that short‐horizon stocks have lower (expected) returns than long‐horizon stocks. This result is consistent with an upward‐sloping equity yield curve.
    July 22, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12320   open full text
  • The Federal Reserve's Tools for Policy Normalization in a Preferred Habitat Model of Financial Markets.
    Han Chen, Jim Clouse, Jane Ihrig, Elizabeth Klee.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 22, 2016
    We develop a model to analyze monetary policy implementation with multiple Federal Reserve liabilities and superabundant reserves. The analysis demonstrates the Federal Reserve's tools including interest on excess reserves (IOER), overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ON RRP), and term deposits should allow the Federal Reserve to raise the short‐term interest rates to any desired level. We find the contribution of each the increase in the IOER and ON RRP offering rates in firming money market rates suggested by the data during the December 2015 policy tightening event is remarkably similar to the effect of each tool implied by the calibrated model.
    July 22, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12322   open full text
  • The Cross‐Market Spillover of Economic Shocks through Multimarket Banks.
    Jose M. Berrospide, Lamont K. Black, William R. Keeton.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 22, 2016
    This study investigates the mortgage lending of banks operating in multiple U.S. metropolitan areas during the housing market collapse of 2007–09. We show that multimarket banks reduced local portfolio lending in response to high overall mortgage delinquencies in their other markets, consistent with the view that local economic shocks can be transmitted to other regions through banks’ internal capital markets. This spillover was greatest when the bank lacked a branch presence and when the market was highly peripheral to the bank in terms of its total mortgage lending. These effects were not fully offset by securitization or other portfolio lenders.
    July 22, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12323   open full text
  • On Freezing Depositor Funds at Financially Distressed Banks: An Experimental Analysis.
    Douglas D. Davis, Robert J. Reilly.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 22, 2016
    This article reports an experiment conducted to evaluate the effects of alterations in the terms of repayments to depositors following a liquidity suspension, as well as the effect of alterations in the publicity of information about withdrawal behavior on the fragility of distressed banks. Results indicate that a “tough” renegotiation stance of protecting depositors who maintain their money in the bank, can quite effectively promote stability. Information provided to depositors regarding past withdrawal behavior weakens the effectiveness of a tough renegotiation policy but reduces fragility somewhat for a more lenient rescheduling condition.
    July 22, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12324   open full text
  • Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections.
    Natsuki Arai.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 22, 2016
    Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers have been publishing detailed numerical projections of macroeconomic series over the next 3 years. By testing whether the revisions to these projections are unpredictable, I find that FOMC's efficiency is generally accepted for inflation but often rejected for real economic variables, notably for the unemployment rate. The rejection is due to the strong autocorrelation of revisions, which may reflect information rigidity of FOMC's unemployment projections. The joint efficiency of the entire projection is accepted in most cases.
    July 22, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12325   open full text
  • Two Monetary Models with Alternating Markets.
    Gabriele Camera, Yili Chien.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 22, 2016
    We present a thought‐provoking study of two monetary models: the cash‐in‐advance and the Lagos and Wright () models. The different approaches to modeling money—reduced form versus explicit role—induce neither fundamental theoretical nor quantitative differences in results. Given conformity of preferences, technologies, and shocks, both models reduce to equilibrium difference equations that coincide unless price distortions are differentially imposed on cash prices, across models. Equal distortions support equally large welfare costs of inflation. Performance differences stem from unequal assumptions about the pricing mechanism that governs cash transactions, not the differential modeling of the monetary exchange process.
    July 22, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12326   open full text
  • Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion.
    Elmar Mertens.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2016
    In models of monetary policy, discretionary policymaking is typically constrained in its ability to manage public beliefs. However, when a policymaker possesses private information, policy actions serve as signals to the public about unobserved economic conditions and belief management becomes an integral part of optimal discretion policies. This article derives the optimal time‐consistent policy for a general linear‐quadratic setting. The optimal policy is illustrated in a simple New Keynesian model, where analytical solutions can be derived as well. In this model, imperfect information about the policymaker's output target leads to lower policy losses.
    May 17, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12314   open full text
  • Can We Prove a Bank Guilty of Creating Systemic Risk? A Minority Report.
    Jon Danielsson, Kevin R. James, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2016
    Because increasing a bank's capital requirement to improve the stability of the financial system imposes costs upon the bank, a regulator should ideally be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that banks classified as systemically risky really do create systemic risk before subjecting them to this capital punishment. Evaluating the performance of two leading systemic risk models, we show that estimation error alone prevents the reliable identification of the most systemically risky banks. We conclude that it will be a considerable challenge to develop a riskometer that is sound and reliable enough to provide an adequate foundation for macroprudential policy.
    May 17, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12318   open full text
  • Second Chances: Subprime Mortgage Modification and Redefault.
    Andrew Haughwout, Ebiere Okah, Joseph Tracy.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2016
    We examine how the structure of mortgage modification affects the likelihood that the mortgage redefaults over the next year. We focus on pre‐HAMP (Home Affordable Modification Program) subprime modifications where the borrower was seriously delinquent and the monthly payment was reduced. The average redefault rate over the year following the modification is 56%. Redefault rates decline with the magnitude of reduction in monthly payments, and redefault rates decline more when the payment reduction is achieved through principal forgiveness as compared to lower interest rates.
    May 17, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12317   open full text
  • The Roles of Corporate Governance in Bank Failures during the Recent Financial Crisis.
    Allen N. Berger, Björn Imbierowicz, Christian Rauch.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2016
    We analyze the roles of bank ownership, management, and compensation structures in bank failures during the recent financial crisis. Our results suggest that failures are strongly influenced by ownership structure: high shareholdings of lower‐level management and non‐chief executive officer (non‐CEO) higher‐level management increase failure risk significantly. In contrast, shareholdings of banks’ CEOs do not have a direct impact on bank failure. These findings suggest that high stakes in the bank induce non‐CEO managers to take high risks due to moral hazard incentives, which may result in bank failure. We identify tail risk in noninterest income as a primary risk‐taking channel of lower‐level managers.
    May 17, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12316   open full text
  • Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation.
    James Morley, Aarti Singh.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2016
    Why did the volatility of U.S. real GDP decline by more than the volatility of final sales with the Great Moderation in the mid‐1980s? One explanation is that firms shifted their inventory behavior toward a greater emphasis on production smoothing. We investigate the role of inventories in the Great Moderation by estimating an unobserved components model that identifies inventory and sales shocks and their propagation in the aggregate data. Our estimates provide no support for increased production smoothing. Instead, smaller transitory inventory shocks are responsible for the excess volatility reduction in output compared to sales. These shocks behave like informational errors related to production that must be set in advance and their reduction also helps explain the changed forecasting role of inventories since the mid‐1980s. Our findings provide an optimistic prognosis for a continuation of the Great Moderation, despite the dramatic movements in output during the recent economic crisis.
    May 17, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12315   open full text
  • Stock Market Participation: Family Responses to Housing Consumption Commitments.
    Bing Chen, Frank P. Stafford.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2016
    As of 2007, many households had taken on very substantial commitments to housing and companion mortgage payments. At the same time they held little in the way of a traditional buffer stock of safer liquid assets but were more likely to have opened stock market accounts. Many of these families when experiencing subsequent mortgage payment difficulties are shown to have been more likely to exit the stock market. Mortgage difficulties also inhibited families from becoming new stock market participants. In this way stocks seem to have likely experienced some direct and indirect “collateral damage” from the housing market, 2007–9.
    May 17, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12313   open full text
  • Congress and the Federal Reserve.
    Gregory D. Hess, Cameron A. Shelton.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2016
    We examine legislative activity to determine when Congress threatens the Fed and whether this pressure affects monetary policy. By the late‐1980s Congress shifted from threatening when unemployment was high to threatening when inflation was high. We use the Romer and Romer monetary shocks to isolate changes in the federal funds rate that cannot be explained by economic conditions and ask whether these shocks respond to pressure. In the 1970s, the Fed responded to bills credibly threatening Fed powers by lowering the federal funds target below that prescribed by current and forecast economic conditions. However, this accommodation ceased in the mid‐1980s.
    May 17, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12312   open full text
  • The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR.
    Angela Abbate, Sandra Eickmeier, Wolfgang Lemke, Massimiliano Marcellino.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 17, 2016
    We study the changing international transmission of financial shocks over the period 1971–2012. Global financial shocks are measured as unexpected changes of a U.S. financial conditions index (FCI), developed by Hatzius et al. (2010). We model the FCI jointly with a large international data set through a time‐varying parameter factor‐augmented VAR and find that financial shocks have a considerable impact on growth in the nine countries considered. Moreover, financial shocks during the global financial crisis are found to be large by historical standards. They explain approximately 20% of GDP growth variation on average over 2008–9, compared to an average of 5% prior to the crisis.
    May 17, 2016   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12311   open full text
  • Bank Heterogeneity and Interest Rate Setting: What Lessons Have We Learned since Lehman Brothers?
    Leonardo Gambacorta, Paolo Emilio Mistrulli.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 08, 2014
    A substantial literature has investigated the role of relationship lending in shielding borrowers from idiosyncratic shocks. Much less is known about how lending relationships and bank‐specific characteristics affect the functioning of the credit market in an economy‐wide crisis. We investigate how bank and bank–firm relationship characteristics have influenced interest rate setting since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. We find that interest rate spreads increased by less for those borrowers having closer lending relationships. Furthermore, firms borrowing from banks endowed with large capital and liquidity buffers and from banks engaged mainly in traditional lending were kept more insulated from the financial crisis.
    May 08, 2014   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12124   open full text
  • What Asset Prices Should Be Targeted by a Central Bank?
    Kengo Nutahara.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 08, 2014
    This paper investigates the monetary policy design for restoring equilibrium determinacy. Our interests are whether a central bank should respond to asset price fluctuations, and if so, what asset prices should be targeted. We show that a monetary policy response to the price of a productive tangible asset (capital price) is helpful for equilibrium determinacy, while that to the price of an intangible asset that reflects a firm's profit (share prices) is a source of equilibrium indeterminacy. This result comes from the two assets' prices moving in opposite directions in response to a permanent increase in inflation.
    May 08, 2014   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12126   open full text
  • Dynamics of Banks' Capital Accumulation.
    Emanuel Barnea, Moshe Kim.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 08, 2014
    We construct a dynamic neoclassical model of banking capital where the dynamics are governed by the process of financial capital accumulation and credit risk realizations in a structure where stylized banking characteristics are maintained. This is aimed at focusing on how the profit‐maximizing capital ratio of banks evolves and how it reacts to exogenous shocks particularly so during periods of prolonged downturn of the economy. We examine impulse responses of our model to credit risk shock, business cycle shock, and monetary policy shock. The convergence of financial capital to its optimal level is also explored.
    May 08, 2014   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12125   open full text
  • Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior.
    Claudia M. Buch, Sandra Eickmeier, Esteban Prieto.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 08, 2014
    We analyze the link between banks and the macroeconomy using a model that extends a macroeconomic VAR for the U.S. with a set of factors summarizing conditions in about 1,500 commercial banks. We investigate how macroeconomic shocks are transmitted to individual banks and obtain the following main findings. Backward‐looking risk of a representative bank declines, and bank lending increases following expansionary shocks. Forward‐looking risk increases following an expansionary monetary policy shock. There is, however, substantial heterogeneity in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks, which is due to bank size, capitalization, liquidity, risk, and the exposure to real estate and consumer loans.
    May 08, 2014   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12123   open full text
  • The Riskiness of Corporate Bonds.
    Marco Taboga.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 08, 2014
    We use an index of riskiness recently proposed by Aumann and Serrano () to analyze how the riskiness of diversified portfolios of corporate bonds changes across rating classes and through time and how it compares to the riskiness of other financial instruments. We find that differences in riskiness among portfolios of bonds belonging to different rating classes are seldom statistically significant. We instead find significant time variation in riskiness, driven mainly by return volatility, inflation, and average bond yields. In particular, we find that increases in average bond yields have historically tended to reduce the riskiness of portfolios of corporate bonds by increasing their expected return and by lowering the probability of portfolio losses.
    May 08, 2014   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12122   open full text
  • Making Weak Instrument Sets Stronger: Factor‐Based Estimation of Inflation Dynamics and a Monetary Policy Rule.
    Harun Mirza, Lidia Storjohann.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 08, 2014
    The problem of weak identification has recently attracted attention in the analysis of structural macroeconomic models. Using robust methods can result in large confidence sets making precise inference difficult. We overcome this problem in the analysis of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve and a forward‐looking Taylor rule by employing stronger instruments. We suggest exploiting information from a large macroeconomic data set by generating factors and using them as additional instruments. This approach results in stronger instrument sets and hence smaller weak‐identification robust confidence sets. It allows us to conclude that there has been a shift toward more active monetary policy from the pre‐Volcker regime to the Volcker–Greenspan tenure.
    May 08, 2014   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12120   open full text
  • The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis.
    Leonardo Gambacorta, Boris Hofmann, Gert Peersman.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 08, 2014
    This paper assesses the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policies by estimating a panel vector autoregression (VAR) with monthly data from eight advanced economies over a sample spanning the period since the onset of the global financial crisis. It finds that an exogenous increase in central bank balance sheets at the zero lower bound leads to a temporary rise in economic activity and consumer prices. The estimated output effects turn out to be qualitatively similar to the ones found in the literature on the effects of conventional monetary policy, while the impact on the price level is weaker and less persistent. Individual country results suggest that there are no major differences in the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policies across countries, despite the heterogeneity of the measures that were taken.
    May 08, 2014   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12119   open full text
  • Household Leverage.
    Stefano Corradin.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 08, 2014
    I propose a life‐cycle model where a finitely lived risk‐averse household finances its housing investment by opting to provide a down payment. Given that the household may default, risk‐neutral lenders efficiently charge a default premium to hedge against expected losses. This has two major consequences. First, the higher the house price volatility, the higher the down payment the household provides to decrease the volatility of the equity share in the house. Second, in the presence of borrowing constraints, higher risk of unemployment persistence and/or a substantial drop in labor income decreases the leveraged position the household takes on.
    May 08, 2014   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12118   open full text
  • Power‐Sharing in Monetary Policy Committees: Evidence from the United Kingdom and Sweden.
    Henry W. Chappell, Rob Roy Mcgregor, Todd A. Vermilyea.
    Journal of money credit and banking. May 08, 2014
    Committees may make better monetary policy decisions than individuals; however, the benefits of group decision making could be lost if committee members cede power to a chairman. We develop an econometric model to describe intracommittee power‐sharing across members. Estimation of the model permits us to classify monetary policy committees into the typology developed by Blinder (, ). We estimate our model for the United Kingdom's Bank of England (BOE) and Sweden's Riksbank. Results for the BOE suggest that the Governor has little influence over other committee members, while those for the Riksbank indicate that the Governor is highly influential.
    May 08, 2014   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12121   open full text
  • Bank Capital: Lessons from the Financial Crisis.
    Asli Demirguc‐Kunt, Enrica Detragiache, Ouarda Merrouche.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 15, 2013
    Using a multicountry panel of banks, we study whether better capitalized banks experienced higher stock returns during the financial crisis. We differentiate among various types of capital ratios: the Basel risk‐adjusted ratio, the leverage ratio, the Tier 1 and Tier 2 ratios, and the tangible equity ratio. We find several results: (i) before the crisis, differences in capital did not have much impact on stock returns; (ii) during the crisis, a stronger capital position was associated with better stock market performance, most markedly for larger banks; (iii) the relationship between stock returns and capital is stronger when capital is measured by the leverage ratio rather than the risk‐adjusted capital ratio; (iv) higher quality forms of capital, such as Tier 1 capital and tangible common equity, were more relevant.
    August 15, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12047   open full text
  • Fiscal Data Revisions in Europe.
    Francisco Castro, Javier J. Pérez, Marta Rodríguez‐Vives.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 15, 2013
    Revisions of budget balances in Europe could be particularly worrisome as adherence to multilateral surveillance rules is judged upon initial data releases. We use a pool of real‐time vintages of data for 15 EU countries over the period 1995–2008. Our main findings are: (i) preliminary releases are biased and nonefficient predictors of subsequent releases, (ii) such systematic bias in revisions is a general feature of the sample, (iii) Eurostat's decisions explain a significant share of the bias and provide some evidence of window dressing practices, and (iv) expected real gross domestic product growth, political cycles, and the strength of fiscal rules also contribute to explain revision patterns.
    August 15, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12049   open full text
  • Asymmetric Labor Market Institutions in the EMU and the Volatility of Inflation and Unemployment Differentials.
    Mirko Abbritti, Andreas I. Mueller.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 15, 2013
    How does the asymmetry of labor market institutions affect the adjustment of a currency union to shocks? To answer this question, this paper sets up a dynamic currency union model with monopolistic competition and sticky prices, hiring frictions, and real wage rigidities. In our analysis, we focus on the differentials in inflation and unemployment between countries, as they directly reflect how the currency union responds to shocks. We highlight the following three results. First, we show that it is important to distinguish between different labor market rigidities as they have opposite effects on inflation and unemployment differentials. Second, we find that asymmetries in labor market structures tend to increase the volatility of both inflation and unemployment differentials. Finally, we show that it is important to take into account the interaction between different types of labor market rigidities. Overall, our results suggest that asymmetries in labor market structures worsen the adjustment of a currency union to shocks.
    August 15, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12048   open full text
  • Equity Returns and Business Cycles in Small Open Economies.
    Mohammad R. Jahan‐Parvar, Xuan Liu, Philip Rothman.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 15, 2013
    This is the first paper in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium literature to match key business cycle moments and long‐run equity returns in a small open economy with production. These results are achieved by introducing four modifications to a standard real business cycle model: (i) borrowing and lending costs are imposed to increase the volatility of the marginal rate of substitution over time, (ii) capital adjustment costs are assumed to make equity returns more volatile, (iii) GHH preferences are employed to smooth consumption, and (iv) a working capital constraint to generate countercyclical trade balances. Our results are based on data from Argentina, Brazil, and Chile.
    August 15, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12046   open full text
  • The Impact of House Prices on Consumer Credit: Evidence from an Internet Bank.
    Rodney Ramcharan, Christopher Crowe.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 15, 2013
    This paper shows that house price fluctuations can have a significant impact on credit availability. Data from Prosper.com, a peer‐to‐peer lending site that matches borrowers and lenders to provide unsecured consumer loans, indicate that homeowners in states with declining house prices experience higher interest rates, greater credit rationing, and faster delinquency. We find especially large effects for subprime borrowers whose balance sheets are likely most exposed to asset price declines. This evidence suggests that asset price fluctuations can play an important role in determining credit conditions and are thus a potentially significant mechanism for propagating macroeconomic shocks.
    August 15, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12045   open full text
  • The Most Beautiful Variations on Fair Wages and the Phillips Curve.
    Andrea Vaona.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 15, 2013
    This paper explores the connection between inflation and unemployment in two different models with fair wages in both the short and the long runs. Under customary assumptions regarding the sign of the parameters of the effort function, more inflation lowers the unemployment rate, albeit to a declining extent. This is because firms respond to inflation—which spurs effort by decreasing the reference wage—by increasing employment, thus maintaining the effort level constant as implied by the Solow condition. A stronger short‐run effect of inflation on unemployment is produced under varying as opposed to fixed capital, given that in the former case the boom produced by a monetary expansion is reinforced by an increase in investment. Therefore, I provide a new theoretical foundation for recent empirical contributions that find negative long‐ and short‐run effects of inflation on unemployment.
    August 15, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12044   open full text
  • News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations.
    Damjan Pfajfar, Emiliano Santoro.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 15, 2013
    This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households’ inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll ). We use both aggregate and household‐level data from the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. We highlight a fundamental disconnection among news on inflation, consumers’ frequency of expectation updating, and the accuracy of their expectations. Our evidence provides at best weak support to the epidemiological framework, as most of the consumers who update their expectations do not revise them toward professional forecasters’ mean forecast.
    August 15, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12043   open full text
  • Nonuniform Staggered Prices and Output Persistence.
    Johan Söderberg.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 15, 2013
    Staggered prices are a fundamental building block of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. In the standard model, prices are uniformly staggered, but recent empirical evidence suggests that deviations from uniform staggering are common. This paper analyzes how synchronization of price changes affects the response to monetary policy shocks. I find that even large deviations from uniform staggering have small effects on the response of output. Aggregate dynamics in a model of uniform staggering may serve well as an approximation to a more complicated model with some degree of synchronization in price setting.
    August 15, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12042   open full text
  • Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks.
    Munechika Katayama.
    Journal of money credit and banking. August 15, 2013
    In recent years, output responses to oil price shocks have not only been weaker, but have also reached their trough earlier. This paper builds a model that incorporates a realistic structure of U.S. petroleum consumption and explores three possible explanations for the changes. The possible factors considered are (i) deregulation in the transportation industry, (ii) improved energy efficiency, and (iii) a lower degree of persistence of oil price shocks. Under realistic parameter values, the three factors play an important role quantitatively, accounting for half of the reduction in the largest impact on output of an oil price shock over time.
    August 15, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12041   open full text
  • U.S. Real Interest Rates and Default Risk in Emerging Economies.
    Nathan Foley‐Fisher, Bernardo Guimaraes.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2013
    This paper empirically investigates the impact of changes in U.S. real interest rates on sovereign default risk in emerging economies using the method of identification through heteroskedasticity. Policy‐induced increases in U.S. interest rates starkly raise default risk in emerging market economies. However, the overall correlation between U.S. real interest rates and the risk of default is negative, demonstrating that the effects of other variables dominate the anterior relationship.
    July 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12033   open full text
  • Religion, Corruption, and the Rule of Law.
    Charles M. North, Wafa Hakim Orman, Carl R. Gwin.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2013
    In a 207‐country sample, we find that rule of law and corruption are both associated with a country's religious heritage, thereby partially explaining the correlation between religion and economic growth found in previous research. We also show that our results change when we control for some variables lacking data for all countries in the sample but that these differences are attributable to changes in sample composition rather than the effects of the control variables. Our research suggests that researchers doing cross‐country analysis should distinguish between the effects of adding a control variable and the resulting sample composition effects.
    July 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12024   open full text
  • Liquidity and Information Flow around Monetary Policy Announcement.
    Kee H. Chung, John Elder, Jang‐Chul Kim.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2013
    We analyze the effects of monetary policy announcements on stock market liquidity using intraday data. We show that the impairment in liquidity associated with policy announcements occurs primarily after, rather than before, the announcements, and is relatively short lived, lasting about 1.5 hours. Liquidity impairment varies proportionately with the information content of the policy announcement, with larger effects associated with unscheduled announcements and scheduled announcements with larger policy surprises. Overall, our results suggest that informed traders have an information processing advantage over uninformed participants rather than access to private information.
    July 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12025   open full text
  • Inflation and Welfare in Retail Markets: Prior Production and Imperfectly Directed Search.
    Adrian Masters.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2013
    This paper considers the effect of monetary policy and inflation on retail markets: goods are dated and produced prior to being retailed; buyers direct their search on price and general quality; buyers’ match‐specific tastes are private information. Sellers set the same price for all buyers, some of whom do not value the good highly enough to buy it. The market economy is typically inefficient as a social planner would have the good consumed. Under free entry of sellers, the Friedman rule is optimal policy. When the upper bound on the number of participating sellers binds, moderate levels of inflation can be welfare improving.
    July 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12026   open full text
  • Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross‐Country Perspective.
    Luca Antonio Ricci, Gian Maria Milesi‐Ferretti, Jaewoo Lee.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2013
    This paper employs newly constructed measures for productivity differentials, external imbalances, and commodity terms of trade to estimate a panel cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and a set of fundamentals for a sample of 48 industrial countries and emerging markets. It finds evidence of a strong positive relation between the consumer price index‐based real exchange rate and commodity terms of trade. The estimated impact of productivity growth differentials between traded and nontraded goods, while statistically significant, is small. Increases in net foreign assets, government consumption, and trade restrictions tend to be associated with appreciating real exchange rates.
    July 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12027   open full text
  • Do Sales of Foreign Exchange Reserves Lead to Currency Appreciation?
    Kathryn M.E. Dominguez, Rasmus Fatum, Pavel Vacek.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2013
    We employ novel time‐stamped reserve sales data, provided by the Czech National Bank (CNB), to carry out a time‐series analysis of the exchange rate implications of Czech reserve sales aimed at mitigating valuation losses on Euro‐denominated assets. The sales were explicitly not intended to influence the value of the koruna relative to the euro. The period under study includes a well‐defined regime change in the CNB's approach to reserves sales, allowing us to address whether the manner in which the sales are carried out matters for their influence on the relative value of the domestic currency. We find little evidence that reserve sales influence the exchange rate when sales are carried out on a discretionary and relatively infrequent basis. However, when the sales are carried out daily, we find a statistically and economically significant appreciation of the domestic currency follows.
    July 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12028   open full text
  • Stock Market Comovements and Industrial Structure.
    Pushan Dutt, Ilian Mihov.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2013
    We use monthly stock indices for 58 countries to construct pairwise correlations of returns and explain these correlations with risk‐adjusted differences in industrial structure across countries. We find that countries with similar industries exhibit higher stock market comovements. The results are robust to the inclusion of other regressors such as differences in income per capita, stock market capitalizations, measures of institutions, as well as various fixed time, country, and country‐pair effects. Our results are consistent with models where the impact of each industry‐specific shock is proportional to the share of this industry in the overall industrial output of the country.
    July 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12029   open full text
  • International Evidence on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Data.
    Joseph P. Byrne, Alexandros Kontonikas, Alberto Montagnoli.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2013
    We present a unique empirical analysis of the properties of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) using an international data set of aggregate and disaggregate sectoral inflation. Our results from panel time‐series estimation clearly indicate that sectoral heterogeneity has important consequences for aggregate inflation behavior. Heterogeneity helps to explain the overestimation of inflation persistence and underestimation of the role of marginal costs in empirical investigations of the NKPC that use aggregate data. We find that combining disaggregate information with heterogeneous‐consistent estimation techniques helps to reconcile, to a large extent, the NKPC with the data.
    July 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12030   open full text
  • Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend–Price Ratio and Return Predictability.
    Chang‐Jin Kim, Cheolbeom Park.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2013
    The conventional dividend–price ratio is highly persistent, and the literature reports mixed evidence on its role in predicting stock returns. We argue that the decreasing number of firms with a traditional dividend‐payout policy is responsible for these results, and develop a model in which the long‐run relationship between the dividends and stock price is time varying. An adjusted dividend–price ratio that accounts for the time‐varying long‐run relationship is considerably less persistent. Furthermore, the predictive regression model that employs the adjusted dividend–price ratio as a regressor outperforms the random‐walk model. These results are robust with respect to the firm size.
    July 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12031   open full text
  • Intraday Patterns in FX Returns and Order Flow.
    Francis Breedon, Angelo Ranaldo.
    Journal of money credit and banking. July 11, 2013
    Using a comprehensive high‐frequency foreign exchange data set, we present evidence of time‐of‐day effects in foreign exchange returns through a significant tendency for currencies to depreciate during local trading hours. We confirm this pattern across a range of currencies and time zones. We also find that this pattern is reflected in order flow and suggest that both patterns relate to the tendency of market participants to be net purchasers of foreign exchange in their own trading hours. Data from a single market maker appears to corroborate that interpretation.
    July 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12032   open full text