Survey Expectations in the U.S. Phillips Curve
Journal of money credit and banking
Published online on December 15, 2025
Abstract
["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper empirically examines the use of different survey expectations in the U.S. Phillips curve. I find that between the Michigan Surveys of Consumers’ (MSC) and Survey of Professional Forecasters’ (SPF) short‐ and long‐term forecasts, short‐term forecasts from the MSC are the best measure of inflation expectations for use in the Phillips curve. These results are robust to specifications of the Phillips curve with different measures of inflation, labor market slack, and sample periods. Furthermore, I find that conditional forecasts of inflation using short‐term MSC expectations lead to the greatest improvement in out‐of‐sample Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) relative to other expectations.\n"]