Banking Panic Risk and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Journal of money credit and banking
Published online on April 08, 2026
Abstract
["Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 58, Issue 3, Page 885-918, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nWe explore the interactions between banking panics and uncertainty shocks. To do so, we build a model of a production economy with a banking sector. In the model, financial constraints of banks can lead to disastrous banking panics. We find that a higher probability of a banking panic increases macroeconomic uncertainty. Vice versa, a shock to macroeconomic uncertainty increases the likelihood of a banking panic. This banking panic channel amplifies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. A countercyclical capital buffer increases welfare by reducing the likelihood of a banking panic."]