Bias and tracking accuracy in voting projections using the New Zealand attitudes and values study
Chris G. Sibley,
Andrew Robertson,
Danny Osborne,
Yanshu Huang,
Petar Milojev,
Lara M. Greaves,
Carla A. Houkamau,
Joseph Bulbulia,
Fiona Kate BarlowAuthor biographiesChris G. Sibley is an Associate Professor at the University of Auckland,
He teaches in research methods and social psychology,
and is the lead investigator for the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study,
Andrew Robertson has a PhD in psychology and ,
experience in the polling industry,
He worked at Colmar Brunton at the time this manuscript was prepared,
and oversaw the team delivering the ONE News Colmar Brunton poll between ,
Andrew currently works as Principal Advisor,
Research and Evaluation for a New Zealand government agency,
Danny Osborne is a Senior Lecturer in the School of Psychology at the University of Auckland,
His research focuses on the intersection between psychology and politics,
with a particular emphasis on political ideologies and collective action,
Yanshu Huang is a doctoral candidate in the School of Psychology at the University of Auckland,
Her research interests include measuring the change in sexism in society and the role of sexist attitudes in determining support for women,
s rights,
Petar Milojev is a post-doctoral fellow in the School of Psychology at Massey University,
His research focuses on personality development over the lifespan,
Lara M. Greaves ,
Ngāti Kuri,
is a PhD student in political psychology at the University of Auckland,
Her PhD focuses on Māori politics and identity,
she studies how identity relates to political outcomes,
including electoral roll and vote choice,
Carla A. Houkamau ,
is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Management and International Business,
Her current research programme is concerned with identity and the business case for diversity management,
Joseph Bulbulia is an Associate Professor in the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences at Victoria University of Wellington New Zealand,
He specialises in quantitative approaches to the study of religion and society,
Fiona Kate Barlow is an Australian Research Council Future Fellow at the School of Psychology at the University of Queensland,
Her primary research focus is on the development,
and maintenance,
of intergroup antagonism
Political Science
Published online on October 19, 2016
Political Science, Ahead of Print.
We introduce a method for assessing the overall level of bias and relative tracking accuracy in time-series analysis of polling data on voter intentions by comparing two data sets: the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (N= 13,936) and the One News ...