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Effect of terrorism on demand for tourism in Kenya: A comparative analysis

Tourism and Hospitality Research

Published online on

Abstract

This paper uses dynamic panel model to compare the effect of terrorism on developed and emerging country demand for tourism in Kenya. Quarterly data spanning 2010Q1 to 2013Q4, sourced from the Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics, for 27 developed and 34 emerging countries is used. Intensity of terror attack measured by fatalities significantly reduces tourist arrivals from developed countries but not from emerging countries. A 1% increase in fatality reduces arrivals from developed countries by 0.082%. This translates to 2487 visitors per year, or roughly 155.8 million Kenya shillings lost annually from an increase of one fatality per quarter.