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Sourcing All the Eggs From One Basket: Trade Dependencies and Import Prices

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Review of International Economics

Published online on

Abstract

["Review of International Economics, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nHighly concentrated imports can be a source of vulnerability to external shocks, especially in an environment characterized by geopolitical tensions and a potential weaponization of supply chains. These concerns have motivated governments and companies around the world to adopt strategies specifically aimed at diversifying import suppliers. This paper aims at understanding whether these trends have any implications for prices. Using granular trade data and a large sample of OECD and EU countries over two decades, it shows that countries whose imports are highly concentrated in a few providers tend to pay higher prices, although this effect is generally small. The relationship is stronger in those cases in which supplier market power is large—for products characterized by a low elasticity of substitution; that are exported by a few producers at the global level; or that a country cannot (fully) produce by itself. Also, the relationship between import concentration and prices displays significant heterogeneity across sectors. In particular, it decreases with the level of technological sophistication, being stronger for primary and low‐tech goods and virtually null for high‐tech industries.\n"]