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Winners and Losers From the US‐China Trade War

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Review of International Economics

Published online on

Abstract

["Review of International Economics, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nWe investigate trade reallocations across countries during the US‐China trade dispute. Using US import data, we find evidence of trade diversion in a range of industries and products, including products not targeted by US tariffs. We uncover three main underlying mechanisms. First, countries with a greater revealed comparative advantage in a product benefit more from these tariffs. Second, non‐targeted products in similar industries are also affected, consistent with colocation effects. Third, countries that export more of a given product to the US because of the tariffs on China also export more of the same product to other countries as predicted by the Melitz model.\n"]