MetaTOC stay on top of your field, easily

Trade Diversion Effects From Global Tensions

,

Review of International Economics

Published online on

Abstract

["Review of International Economics, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nHow do global trade tensions affect third countries? This paper studies whether the 2018 US–China trade tensions generated trade diversion toward Mexico in the United States market. Using a product‐month panel from 2016 to 2020, we show that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods reduced US imports from China and increased imports from Mexico. This trade diversion effect is present along both the extensive margin, through a higher probability of importing from Mexico, and the intensive margin, through larger import values within products that were already traded before the tariff increase. We find that the main effect operates through direct demand reallocation, with limited evidence of short‐run propagation through input–output linkages. Mexico gains more in products where it had lower pre‐shock exposure to the United States market and less in sectors that are more deeply integrated into global value chains.\n"]