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Hyperinflation and High Inflation in Venezuela: Monetary or Exchange Rate Origin?

Kyklos

Published online on

Abstract

["Kyklos, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nFrom 2018 to 2021, Venezuela experienced a period of intense hyperinflation. There are two hypotheses regarding the origin of such hyperinflation. The monetarist hypothesis attributes hyperinflation to excessive growth in the money supply, typically resulting from public deficits. Alternatively, the structuralist balance of payments hypothesis attributes the phenomenon to sharp exchange rate devaluations arising from structural issues in the balance of payments. This study applied VAR‐based techniques (the Granger causality test and forecast error variance decomposition) commonly used in this field of research. The results show that the monetarist hypothesis holds true for different temporal periods characterized by hyperinflation. This finding is consistent with those of other empirical studies. However, when the same analysis is conducted for an earlier period of price acceleration, from 2013 to 2017, the results are diametrically opposed. Only the balance of payments hypothesis is confirmed in this case. This work therefore provides a more comprehensive explanation of the inflationary process in Venezuela than previous research. This study concludes that the parallel market exchange rate triggered an acceleration in prices prior to hyperinflation and ceased to be relevant only when prices began to rise explosively. At that point, the money supply became the sole explanatory variable of hyperinflation.\n"]