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Networked Regional Resilience: Diffusion of Risk and Adaptation Across Interconnected Regions

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Journal of Regional Science

Published online on

Abstract

["Journal of Regional Science, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nRegions face not only direct exposure to economic and physical shocks but also indirect consequences of actions in interconnected regions. This paper examines how socio‐spatial networks shape regional resilience to contagious shocks through dynamic feedback between risk diffusion and adaptation diffusion. In our framework, peer effects generate positive spillovers in risk‐mitigating adaptation across social networks, while evolving cross‐regional physical connections mediate the spatial spread of risks. Calibrated to U.S. regional data, we simulate and compare network‐aware intervention strategies that prioritize regions based on social centrality, spatial centrality, and population scale. The results show that the cost‐effectiveness of interventions depends critically on the population scale of socially or spatially central regions. Strategies that maximize aggregate risk reduction do not always align with those that are the most cost‐effective, revealing fundamental trade‐offs that call for hybrid, model‐informed intervention design. Our findings underscore the importance of interregional linkages and network‐aware policy design in shaping regional resilience to systemic shocks, with broader implications for economic contagion, climate adaptation, and public health.\n"]