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Revisiting the Money Growth and Inflation Nexus in the United States: New Evidence From a Wavelet Approach

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Bulletin of Economic Research

Published online on

Abstract

["Bulletin of Economic Research, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nDriven by the recent revival of the debate about the role of money in explaining inflation, this paper provides new insights into the dynamic relationship between money growth and inflation in the United States. The relationship is investigated using the wavelet methodology over 1960–2024. The paper reveals three noticeable findings. First, money growth and inflation were never in phase over the whole period investigated, thereby questioning purely quantity theoretic viewpoints related to monetary policy. The second finding is the absence of any co‐movement between money growth and inflation at very high and, as a novelty, low frequencies over the investigable timespan. This suggests that the recent resurgence of inflation should be attributed to the interaction of many different factors on the demand and supply sides of the economy, including the large monetary expansion during the pandemic. Third, we highlight different episodes where inflation negatively drives money growth in the short to medium run, in line with the Federal Reserve monetary policy operating procedure and the implications of the DSGE model.\n"]