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Value of Information of Improved Traceability in Fresh Produce Markets

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Agribusiness

Published online on

Abstract

["Agribusiness, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nTraceability plays an important role in promoting a safe food supply by fostering transparent information exchange along the food supply chain. New technological innovations have the potential to improve traceability outcomes, as greater transparency along the food supply chain can aid in pinpointing precise origins of the contamination, leading to faster and more focused recalls. For instance, a robust technology‐enhanced traceability system could have helped mediate the economic damage experienced in the 2006 spinach market due to an E. coli outbreak, when sales volume declined rapidly, consumer confidence decreased, and prices dropped dramatically due to this shock. However, the adoption of new and innovative traceability technologies may face some resistance due to a lack of proper evaluation of their financial value, especially given the difficulty conceptualizing positive cash flows from such an investment. In this paper we attempt to shed light on this issue by estimating the value of information (VOI) from improved traceability in the leafy greens industry. Specifically, we model the problem of a representative romaine lettuce farm that faces declines in revenue due to exogenous food safety shocks impacting market‐level sales volumes and prices. Using data from the CDC's National Outbreak Reporting System, we employ a Markov chain approach to estimate steady‐state probabilities that reflect the dynamics of food safety incidents related to romaine lettuce over time. Under the proposition that enhanced traceability should reduce both the duration and severity of a food safety incident, we modify these steady‐state probabilities to simulate these improvements. Therefore, the VOI measure considers the value of system‐wide traceability improvement realized at a representative farm level by examining the expected present value of farm revenue under states of improved traceability relative to the expected present value of farm revenue considering the original steady‐state probabilities. Our results indicate that system‐wide improvements in traceability do provide value at the enterprise level, especially when a food safety incident creates a negative shock to market prices and volumes sold.\n"]