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The Economic and Environmental Costs of Weather‐Induced Disruptions in U.S. Crop Transportation

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Agribusiness

Published online on

Abstract

["Agribusiness, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nThe U.S. crop distribution system transports millions of tons of crops from the Corn Belt to export ports using roads, rail, and rivers. Weather extremes, such as flash floods, tornadoes, and winter storms, can disrupt this distribution network, raising both economic and environmental costs. This study assesses how such disruptions affect shipping costs, basis spreads (local price – export price), and associated transportation emissions for corn and soybeans. Shipping costs are estimated using observed price data and least‐cost route mapping. A panel regression is used to evaluate how weather events affect the basis spread, controlling for transportation costs and other market factors. Changes in emissions are then calculated when shipments are rerouted due to disasters. Within this framework, disasters increased shipping costs and reduced basis spreads by up to $0.40 per bushel for corn and $0.54 per bushel for soybeans. Flash floods had the largest impact on soybean shipping costs (+ $0.45 per bushel), while winter storms most affected corn (+ $0.13 per bushel). Simulated rerouting increased transportation emissions by an average of 159 grams of CO2 per bushel for corn and 177 grams for soybeans. Routes serving Laredo exhibited some of the largest estimated emission increases, with emissions increasing by 220 grams (corn) and 240 grams (soybeans) per bushel, largely due to flash floods and increased road use. At the county level, North Dakota's collection points exhibit the highest average emission increases, driven by long distances to ports and greater reliance on high‐emission transport modes. These findings suggest that extreme weather disruptions along transportation corridors simultaneously reduce market efficiency—through narrower basis spreads and increased shipping costs—and may increase the environmental footprint of U.S. crop logistics. The results underscore the importance of resilient infrastructure and adaptation strategies to mitigate both economic and environmental burdens in the crop transportation network.\n"]