{"__content__"=>"\n Objectives\n \n \n Methods\n \n \n Results\n \n \n Conclusions\n \n ", "p"=>[{"__content__"=>"This study examines whether state-level variation in gun interest and firearm transactions primarily reflects local conditions or broader national dynamics."}, {"__content__"=>"Monthly Google searches containing the word “gun,” NICS background checks, and state and national gun homicide counts were analyzed for all 50 states (2004–2019, with extensions around 2020). We estimated thousands of pairwise regressions predicting gun interest in one state from activity in another while conditioning on contemporaneous gun homicides. Robustness checks included principal components analysis, lagged models, placebo searches, and Tennessee permit data."}, {"__content__"=>"State-level gun interest and transactions are highly synchronized. Activity in one state predicted activity in another nearly as well as a state predicted itself (average cross-state coefficients = .86 for Google searches and .73 for NICS checks), even after conditioning on contemporaneous state-level gun homicides. In contrast, the average effect of state-level gun homicides on gun interest was small and centered near zero prior to 2020 and changed only moderately using data centered around 2020."}, {"__content__"=>"Over the last 20 years, national events and sentiment appear to account for a large share of the within-state variation in gun interest and transactions, while state-level conditions mattered primarily during periods of extreme national stress. These findings suggest that assumptions of widespread local reverse causality between crime and gun demand may require greater nuance in medium-run analyses. Limitations include the use of proxy measures of gun interest."}]}