Sea Level Rise and Commercial Real Estate
Published online on June 17, 2026
Abstract
["Real Estate Economics, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper examines whether commercial real estate markets capitalize long‐run physical climate risk from sea level rise (SLR). Using property‐level sale transactions for U.S. coastal markets, I find that commercial properties exposed to a six‐foot sea level rise are sold at a 5–6% discount relative to comparable unexposed properties. Importantly, SLR exposure has no significant effect on current net operating income, and the discount is concentrated among climate‐concerned buyers—consistent with markets pricing long‐run inundation risk rather than current income differences."]