Price Transmission and Leadership in the Global Poultry Market: Results From Parametric and Nonparametric Approaches
Published online on May 07, 2026
Abstract
["Agribusiness, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nBrazil and the United States account for more than 40% of global poultry exports, with China and South Korea among their major destination markets. This study examines price transmission and market linkages between Brazil and the United States using monthly poultry export price data from January 1990 to December 2024. It also assesses which of the two countries more frequently acts as the price leader. Empirical analysis employs Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models as parametric approaches, alongside Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) as a nonparametric measure of price‐path similarity. The results indicate strong short‐ and long‐run price linkages and evidence of cointegration, although the law of one price is not supported. DTW estimates further reveal substantial dissimilarity between the two price series, with the United States more frequently emerging as the price leader. Overall, the findings suggest that both export markets are informationally efficient and that macroeconomic conditions and policy environments likely play an important role in shaping global poultry trade.\n"]