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A Hybrid Prediction Market Design for Scientific Replication Forecasting

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Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting

Published online on

Abstract

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, Volume 69, Issue 1, Page 1905-1909, September 2025.
Scientists increasingly worry that many high-profile experiments cannot be reproduced—a “replication crisis” that erodes confidence and drains research funds. Prediction markets can harness collective insight about which results will replicate, but ...