Inflation expectations and time variations in the oil price pass‐through
Published online on April 14, 2026
Abstract
["Economic Inquiry, Volume 64, Issue 2, Page 663-680, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nPrevious literature suggests that the pass‐through of oil price shocks to inflation rates became weaker since the 1970s. I use a time‐varying parameter VAR to show that this trend has recently been reversed with headline and core inflation rates responding more sensitive to oil price shocks. Based on a counterfactual analysis, I offer evidence that increasingly important second round effects propagated via inflation expectations play a key role for these dynamics. Finally, I illustrate that oil price shocks in general and this expectation channel more specifically contributed substantially to the recent surge in inflation rates.\n"]