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Dutch disease, unemployment and structural change

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Economic Inquiry

Published online on

Abstract

["Economic Inquiry, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe find that Dutch disease effects on unemployment are small even in a commodity‐rich economy like Australia. Using an estimated open‐economy model with frictional unemployment, we quantify how business‐cycle shocks and structural changes shape aggregate unemployment. A permanent rise in commodity prices in the 2000s appreciated the real exchange rate and temporarily increased unemployment, but its effect was offset by a gradual, secular decline in the disutility of work in the non‐tradable sector, a key driver of long‐run structural change. Shifting preferences toward non‐tradables, together with non‐commodity shocks, account for most of the observed unemployment dynamics.\n"]