MetaTOC stay on top of your field, easily

Heterogeneity of shifts in economic expectations around elections

Contemporary Economic Policy

Published online on

Abstract

["Contemporary Economic Policy, Volume 44, Issue 2, Page 299-318, April 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper uses the Survey of Consumer Expectations to study the effects of the 2016 and 2020 US elections on economic expectations. I find that Trump's 2016 election victory elicited broad‐based improvements in US stock price and debt expectations, transcending the “winning team.” Aggregate expectations of a US debt level decrease more than doubled. While stronger for white individuals, improvements were distributed across demographics, including predicted Democrat voters, except black individuals. I find no evidence that Biden's 2020 election victory elicited improvements in expectations of the “winning team.” Aggregate stock market expectations decreased and individuals anticipated a higher unemployment rate.\n"]