The Electoral Outcomes of Contractions in Mortgage Credits: Evidence From Gubernatorial and House Elections
Published online on April 20, 2026
Abstract
["Bulletin of Economic Research, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nDuring the financial crisis of 2008, the US economy experienced a sharp contraction in mortgage credit supply. Previous research indicates that voters responded to the 2007–2008 financial crisis by punishing the incumbent party in the presidential election of 2008. To further investigate the electoral consequences of the crisis, we use an individual‐level data set comprising millions of loan application outcomes to study the impact of mortgage credit contractions on the 2008 House and Gubernatorial elections. We employ a two‐stage approach to estimate the effect of mortgage market conditions on election outcomes. In the first stage, we construct a measure of the change in mortgage credit supply from 2004 to 2008, controlling for demand‐side factors. In the second stage, we estimate the effect of this change on the change in the challenger party's vote share. Our results indicate no statistically significant impact of mortgage credit contractions on House or Gubernatorial election outcomes. This finding suggests that voters primarily hold the president accountable for changes in mortgage credit conditions, while lower level officials are not perceived as responsible for these shifts."]