Revealing Migration Selectivity Through the Combination of Intention and Preparation: Evidence From African Migration
Published online on March 26, 2026
Abstract
["International Migration, Volume 64, Issue 3, May 2026. ", "\nABSTRACT\nA key explanation for variation in migration outcomes across destinations lies in the selectivity of migrants. This paper argues that combining intended destination with migration preparation provides a useful indicator of early‐stage migration selectivity, capturing how migrants with different destination intentions differ before departure. Using Afrobarometer Round 7 data, the study examines how educational attainment and religious affiliation shape migration preparation across three destination regions: Africa, Europe and North America. The findings highlight three salient patterns: (1) preparation for Europe follows a bifurcated pattern, with the highest and lowest educated more likely to prepare; (2) post‐secondary education is positively associated with migration preparation for North America; (3) Muslim affiliation is positively associated with preparation for intra‐African migration. These results suggest that preparation, when considered in conjunction with intended destination, provides a valuable proxy for early‐stage selection that is aligned with, and complementary to, existing evidence on migrant selectivity at destination.\n"]