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A Multi-Scalar Causal Approach across Space and Time: An Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic in São Paulo State, Brazil

Journal of Quantitative Criminology

Published online on

Abstract

{"__content__"=>"\n Objectives\n \n \n Methods\n \n \n Results\n \n \n Conclusions\n \n ", "p"=>[{"__content__"=>"We develop and apply a quasi-experimental framework that adopts a causal inference perspective to examine spatial and temporal patterns of crime across multiple spatial and temporal scales."}, {"__content__"=>"Using granular spatiotemporal police-recorded crime data from São Paulo state, Brazil, in 2016–2021, we employ difference-in-differences and event study methods to estimate the impacts of the COVID-19 mobility restrictions on crimes and crime hotspots and the heterogeneity in the impacts across space and time in an integrated way."}, {"__content__"=>"The mobility restrictions temporarily decreased property crimes, not homicide, but increased crime hotspots and altered hourly temporal patterns of property crimes potentially in a persistent way. Patterns were distinct at the municipality and census block levels. Unique patterns were found in urban slums (favelas) and for domestic violence."}, {"__content__"=>"Our framework effectively uncovered novel evidence regarding spatial and temporal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic for different types of crime in the Global South."}]}