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Examining Duration of Deterrent Effects of Police Stops on Street Crime in China: An Integrated Consideration of Stop Locations and Targets

Journal of Quantitative Criminology

Published online on

Abstract

{"__content__"=>"\n Objectives\n \n \n Methods\n \n \n Results\n \n \n Conclusions\n \n ", "p"=>[{"__content__"=>"The police play as a crucial role in preventing crime. However, no studies have yet examined the differences in duration of deterrent effects of pedestrian stopped by police (i.e. police stop) on street crime when police targeting different social groups—the persons with crime record and the general population—in various locations (high crime risk areas or low crime risk areas). This study is to explore the duration and temporal decay pattern of residual deterrent effects of police stops in China."}, {"__content__"=>"Panel data and the difference generalized method of moments (Difference GMM) dynamic panel framework can tease out the endogenous relationships between street crime and police stop. Using high spatiotemporal resolution observational data of crime triangle in a developed district of ZG city in China, we estimate a series of difference GMM models to investigate the various time effects of three aspects of police stop (the number of general police stops, whether police stop in high crime risk areas, whether persons with crime records stopped in high crime risk areas) on street crime."}, {"__content__"=>"Police stops exert significant residual deterrent effects on street crime, but the duration of these effects varies according to the specific strategies employed during stops. The deterrent effect of general stops lasts for 3 days. When conducted within high crime risk areas, these effects can persist for up to 6 days, extending to 7 days when persons with crime records are identified. The decay of residual deterrent effects follows a non-linear pattern over time."}, {"__content__"=>"The locations and targets of police stops are crucial for understanding the duration of their residual deterrent effects on crime. Compared to general police stops, focusing on high crime risk areas and individuals with crime records can increase the likelihood of encounters between police and potential offenders, thereby elevating the perceived risk among potential offenders, which influences crime rates over a longer period of time. This study adds to our understanding of the success of police stops by suggesting that one pathway for decreased crime is to change perceptions of the arrest risk through the location and subject of the stops."}]}